【國際政治經濟典籍導讀課程・蕭少滔 024A】《麥南馬拉回憶錄》導讀：為甚麼第一流人才會嚴重計算失誤？（一）
Added 2025-07-08 05:01:02 +0000 UTC麥南馬拉作越戰中一名重要人物，他的背景更與現美國國防部長有不少相似之處。今集將與大家導讀麥南馬拉對越戰的回憶錄。
Comments
McNamara fallacy: “The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is suicide.” Why smart people make big mistakes: 1/ Sometimes it has to do with the nature of the problem. It could be inherently unpredictable and very sensitive to small variations in input 2/ incomplete or incorrect data 3/ incorrect analysis. This could be calculation error or could result from all kinds of psychological biases. Elon offered some recent examples. He bet with Sam Harris that Covid cases in the US would not exceed 35,000. We can see very early on from developments in Asia that this will be a disaster. Wrapped around a cocoon of poor data in Twitter/X is likely one cause here. But it is his overconfidence in X that made that happen. In another example his foray into politics is likely causing him far more business damage than he initially imagined. Overconfidence is also the common thread here. His risk profile is not helping either. We don't have to pee on an electric fence to learn not to do it. These mistakes are expensively acquired by someone else. It would be a waste if we disregard these learning materials.
lyk
2025-07-08 13:54:51 +0000 UTC
