Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-1-22 08:45 PDT - Severodonetsk Update

There have been interesting developments in the last 24 hours in the Severodonetsk salient with as much intrigue off the battlefield as on the battlefield.

As of five hours ago, Russian forces have made no additional gains in Severodonetsk since yesterday. I added the "as of five hours ago" because that is the latest, trusted intel we have. Sentinel One remains blinded due to cloud cover, impacting NASA FIRMS. So it is challenging to gain additional information.

The amount of disinformation and misinformation on social media channels about Severodonetsk has created a flood of repeated - nonsense. Not nonsense in the sense of ridiculous claims, as in literal nonsense. The channels are so noisy that it is impossible to gain new information. The lack of electricity, cell service, and Internet, coupled with the region becoming too dangerous for any journalist, has created a black hole.

As we wrote yesterday, the last known position for Chechen forces was 400 meters west-southwest of the Concert Hall. To the best of our ability, we believe that Ukrainian forces are maintaining a defensive line in the industrial districts. These areas favor defenders and are close to possible withdrawal routes.

Around Popasna - no progress for Russian forces - not an inch. The T-1302 Highway is still operating, and there are reports, unconfirmed, that the situation for moving supplies has improved somewhat in the last 24 hours.

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy told United States news agency NewsMax that Ukraine is suffering 60 to 100 KIA and up to 500 WIA a day through the entire Donbas. These are unsustainable losses.

Russian state media is reporting five generals were fired on June 1 by Putin - given this came from an RIA approved source, it is almost certainly true.

We are reviewing the items and a scorecard on how valid we think they are.

There are reports that Donetsk People's Republic leader Denis Pushilin was wounded in Lyman. That has morphed to and 50 Chechens, which morphed to and a "high ranking Russian official." We don't think there is a lot of weight to this report because the numbers impacted keep growing, and there wasn't any evidence that Chechens are in Lyman. Further, Pushilin hasn't shown a willingness to put himself in harm's way.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces have been able to move more artillery into the Donbas and that Polish-provided T-72 tanks are moving into the region. We believe these reports are likely true given the strong evidence that the Ground Lines of Communication east of Bakhmut have improved - somewhat. We doubt that any tanks moving into this area are destined for Severodonetsk or the Popasna highlands. That isn't tank territory.

Ramzan Kadyrov doubled down stating that Severodonetsk was fully captured last week and accused the Kremlin, separatist leaders, and the RIA of lying in a video released earlier today.

ASSESSMENT IN THE ASSESSMENT:

A) He believes this and his field commanders are lying to him about the real situation.

B) He is being a troll - and yes - political and military leaders can be social media trolls.

C) There are fractures growing between Kadyrov and the Kremlin.

This isn't the first time Kadyrov has been critical of the Kremlin, but this is the first time he has doubled down on a debunked claim.