Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-2-22 15:15 PDT - Severodonetsk Update

I'm sure you've been told in the past, "if it is too good to be true, it probably is."

It has been a week since Ramzan Kadyrov claimed Chechen forces captured all of Severodonetsk. It's been 24 hours since he double-downed on that claim and called the RIA and Russian State Media liars. Today there was a propaganda video from the RIA showing the happy residents of Severodonetsk out and about playing, enjoying life, shopping, and welcoming their liberators. Please ignore the clean military uniforms, make-up, perfect hair, and the winter coats people are wearing in June.

After taking control of 80% of the city 24 hours ago, Russian forces now control - about 60%. Alexy Arestovich is claiming this was an intentional trap, to lure Russian forces right where they wanted them. Arestovich hasn't exactly been a pillar of honesty and fair assessment.

ASSESSMENT: We firmly believe that Ukrainian forces chose to move to preprepared defenses in areas advantageous to them and that minimized the risk of becoming encircled. There are unconfirmed reports of up to 800 civilians hiding in the industrial area looking for evacuation. There are very firm reports that the situation on the T-1302 highway has improved further, to the point that civilian evacuations are happening again, and not just from Severodonetsk. We are seeing a lot of evidence that Russian troops around Popasna and attempt to move on multiple advances are in disarray. 

Arestovich is most likely just mocking the Pro-Russian talking points, it is doubtful given the troop disadvantage in Severodonetsk which doesn't favor a long-term defense, that this was all part of the plan. A secondary theory is an advance back into civilian areas was to facilitate more evacuations for people who want to leave the city. Mostly sick, elderly, and poor.

Western reporters were at the only functional hospital left in Severodonetsk and it has been shelled to pieces. No power, water, or sanitation, all the windows were blown out, damaged floors and walls were, and some areas collapsed. There were evacuations of patients going on, and only a handful of the medical staff remain. Several were allegedly kidnapped on May 31 or June 1 and haven't been seen since.

There is strong video evidence that Chechen and Wagner forces confidently believed they had taken the city without a fight. Bad OPSEC revealed no attempts to set up checkpoints, and no presence of armor or infantry fighting vehicles. Small groups, moving tactically in the open in broad daylight.

The fact that the regional offices for the oblast defense were emptied of everything and it appeared a very methodical and organized removal of -- everything -- indicates a significant amount of advanced planning.

In our assessment, this was less of a trap and more of a case of overconfidence that created an unexpected opportunity. We don't believe that Ukrainian forces will push Russia out of Severodonetsk. However, anyone who thought it was going to be easy has been proven very wrong.