Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-9-22 11:15 PDT - Victory Day Hot Takes

We watched the Victory Day celebration in Moscow's Red Square. English speakers, like myself, watched the BBC coverage while our Russian speakers watched the direct coverage. We've compared notes because you can't rely on straight translations. Words have multiple meanings, can mean different things in the larger context of a speech, and tone and emotion are lost for non-native speakers (the movie Fail-Safe, released in 1964, explains this magnificently).

This is the Malcontent News hot takes.

• Russia's President Vladimir Putin made no claims to victory in Ukraine, did not declare war, nor call for mass mobilization.
• There were mixed opinions on these three points. Some of us were surprised that he did not lay claim or try to spin any form of success in Ukraine. Others felt he is arriving at the realization that things are not going to plan.
• Most of us are not surprised he did not officially declare war. From what we have been able to glean, there is a high level of support for "special military operation" right up to conscription notices arriving in someone's hand.
• We are not surprised there wasn't a mass mobilization, and a TikTok video we made yesterday hinted we didn't believe one was coming.
• There was universal agreement that President Putin looked unhappy at his own parade. Our native Russian analyst told us this goes beyond the typical stone face looks of Russian politicians.
• We were universally shocked that Putin met with some people after the parade, engaged with them, and shook hands. His paranoia over COVID, assassination, and poisoning is well known. It was the only time he appeared genuinely happy.
• Sergei Shoigu was there, which should eliminate any belief that he has had multiple severe heart attacks. He looked beyond unhappy, he looked utterly miserable.
• The hot takes on Putin's speech landed on several themes. Universally it felt like a list of grievances and positioned Russia and the Russian people as victims. He renewed allegations of Ukraine having a nuclear weapons program that was supported by NATO. He attempted to position NATO, the United States, and their supporters as out to destroy Russia. Some felt the speech was weak in words and exuded weakness. Even when viewed through the lens of a domestic audience. One analyst compared it to a "coherent Trump speech," due to the positioning of victimhood, and baseless complaints. (don't shoot the messenger).  Most were surprised at the brevity. None of us were surprised at the positioning that Ukraine is part of Russia and under occupation by an evil regime supported by evil people.
• If you believe the flyover was canceled due to weather, we would love to talk to you about oceanfront property opportunities in Nebraska. You know once it's all sold, there won't be any more available! METAR data for Moscow was broken clouds at 2,900 feet and light winds, 6 miles visibility with no fog or precipitation. 
• The lack of any Z iconography was surprising. It is worth noting that other Victory Day parades in Russia prominently displayed the Z, including soldiers wearing armbands that created immediate comparisons to Nazi Germany. Our speculation is the removal of Z iconography, which was previously announced to be an integral part of the parade, was due to the growing association with the Swastika and fascist symbolism. Time will tell if that is the case. 
• For as large as the parade appeared, it was only one-third the size of previous events. We were surprised at how short the overall event was.
• There was a significant and conspicuous reduction in modern military hardware at the parade. Western media made a big fuss over the presence of the Russian mobile ICBM launchers. They have appeared in previous parades and the number was limited. We noted a significantly reduced number of MLRS equipment and a lack of the most modern hardware like the TOS-1.
• Our military analyst told us that a significant number of the "troops" in the parades were actually military cadets and not active duty service members.
• We have heard a lot of chatter that Russian World War II veterans were extremely unhappy with the parade and Victory Day celebration. It is not due to their lack of support for the Ukraine invasion. They are angry because they feel that their sacrifice was not recognized this year and the comparison of the struggle Russia is in today is not equal to what they experienced from 1941 to 1945. There is no Stalingrad, Leningrad, Kharkov (not Kharkiv), Sevastopol, Minsk, or desperate fight to prevent the Germans from entering Moscow.

There was a "parade" in Mariupol (and other occupied cities) but it was mostly Russian aligned citizens. There weren't large displays of POWs, captured military hardware, or formations of Russian troops. We've mostly seen only still pictures and short video clips but noted that the "Z" icon was also less prevalent than we expected. 

The war in Ukraine continues.