Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-16-22 11:00 PDT - Breakthrough in Kharkiv

There are a lot of reports, and NASA FIRMS data seems to support that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River at Rubizhne. The reports started coming in from Pro-Russian social media accounts. GEROMAN is the same account that caused a stir yesterday with a map update showing Oskil no longer under Russian control (we always had it considered contested).

There are many questions on who/what/where/when/how, and something complicating the research. The bridgehead is in Rubizhne - so there are two towns with the same name critical to the ongoing situation - and both with questions and chatter about bridge status.

We're having fun today (sarcasm).

The bridge from Rubizhne to Verkhnya Pysarivka is utterly destroyed. The gap is 150 meters, and an engineering effort would require defensive troops on the east bank to protect the bridgehead. That much we do know. Artillery fire wouldn't be sufficient.

The bridge across the Siverskyi Donets at Staryi Saltiv was also blown - and the gap is up to 150 meters. We haven't seen specific pictures of where the bridge is damaged or how bad, and we're not combat or structural engineers. That crossing is connected by two causeways, which will be much harder to destroy.

Last week there were signs of artillery fire, according to NASA FIRMS, in a very unusual location. It was here, In this area of marshes and low islands in a bend of the Siverskyi Donets. There was a significant debate among our research team on what could be going on here. It didn't make a lot of sense. We decided that this could be poor artillery fire from Russian forces, Ukrainians trying to stop Russians from setting up artillery in that area, or false positives due to the reflectivity of the water (which can happen).

I took another look at that area. There are many docks and beaches (recreational areas) all along that bend in the river.

OPINION: I don't think there was a large-scale amphibious landing here last week - this would be very difficult to hide. But have renewed interest. Did SOF move into this area? Was there a small landing using smaller watercraft to land on some of these areas? Footbridges connect some islands. Cross the river - it opens a gateway.

To establish a bridgehead and build a solution to move larger groups across, you need to control the other side. That would require moving assets over to the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets.

If this turns out to be accurate, and Ukraine has established a secure bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River east of Kharkiv city - we are entering a Phase 3 in the war. The hardest part of moving east and cutting off the Ground Line of Communications to Izyum is establishing a bridgehead and holding it.