Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-19-22 16:45 PDT - Ukraine Update & Housekeeping

First housekeeping. There won't be a SITREP today. It's not from being tired, overwhelmed, or related to the survey from yesterday. Dr. Mrs. Malcontent got us tickets to a BBQ at our synagogue for this evening (I'll report back in the comments if you're curious what a Kosher BBQ is like - I'm assuming no pulled pork or BBQ ribs will be on the menu) and she's been rather neglected - got to show the very supportive spousal unit love! And also - I forgot all about it.

Let's go around the battle lines because the research team has been busy today.

Severodonetsk Salient: Complicated here. Around Severodonetsk itself intense fighting and a lot of artillery. Russian advances are measured in meters. Very similar to fighting in Rubihzne and Popasna back in March-April. The bigger story is the breakthrough at Popasna. There is a lot of Russian misinformation being circulated. Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines (we reported that on Monday) and have started an advance in all directions. The reports are these groups are no longer BTG size because Russian forces have suffered heavy losses. Company size groups (200 to 400ish) led by VDV troops using Chechen, Wagner Group PMC, and local militia to support the operations are moving into towns and settlements. Fighting is intense, both sides are losing a lot of people and equipment, but the Russian advances don't have a large enough force to hold their gains. There are a lot of complaints on Pro-Russian social media about the problems. You might be reading reports of Ukrainian troops encircled, the highway has been cut off, etc. This is based on these company size groups that at best can only operate as reconnaissance in force. They enter a town, reports of fighting, shoot a TikTok video, great victory! We know this dance music. However, this is a serious situation for Ukrainian forces.

There was a report that we have not verified yet that Russia is preparing five BTGs to rush into this breakthrough. That is quite possible because we have been watching five BTGs assembled east of Popasna for days. Here is the thing. That's the bet. If this was poker, this is akin to Russia sliding all their chips on the table and saying, "I raise you everything I have, and call." This is betting the farm. Popasna won't decide the war, but it could very well decide Luhansk in the short term. President Zellensky in his address tonight described the fighting in this region as, "Hell."

Popasna won't decide the war, but it very well could decide Luhansk.

Severodonetsk Westward Offensive: A lot of artillery on Lyman but no major offensive push by Russian forces. This makes sense, they don't have a lot of resources to push with here. They are all in Severodonetsk. No briding attempts over the Siverskyi Donets either. We believe there is a critical shortage of skilled combat engineers at this point given all the failed attempts, and learning that the 14th Engineering Battalion was at Bilohorivka and also suffered terrible losses. The situation in Lyman is unchanged from yesterday, not bad, not good, not surrounded.

South Donbas and Azov Sea: For all intent and purposes, the siege at Azovstal Metallurgical Plant is over. The International Red Cross is in the process of documenting the names of people taken prisoner by Russia, and Russia has reportedly transferred 89 Ukrainian soldiers to Russia as part of a pending prisoner exchange. Pro-Russian social media is extremely unhappy that the wounded at Azovstal are apparently getting their promised medical care. An unknown number of Ukrainian marines and others did not surrender and were not captured. Our assessment is they have transitioned to leading the insurgency within Mariupol. The governmental leadership system is in disarray. The puppet government for the city is not reporting to the DNR, and instead of working directly with the Russian FSB. If the Donetsk People's Republic through there was an economic windfall coming with the port and the city - that doesn't look to be the case. The DNR is reportedly pulling their local police force out, in part due to the disputes with the FSB. Additionally, they need them for what DNR leaders are calling "riots" in multiple cities that have erupted against the war and demanding conscripted troops be removed from the front lines.

Russian forces appear to be suspending their attempts to capture Hulyaipole and Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. Fighting for control of settlements west of Donetsk city and Horlivka continues with no meaningful change in territorial control. Support for the war in Donetsk city appears to be crumbling as fighting is happening in the city's western suburbs (largely abandoned like the shattered airport at Vesele), water and electrical problems, and forced conscription into a war that the residents of the city can see with their own eyes, is not going to plan.

North Kharkiv Counteroffensive: Russian forces (more likely DNR/LNR militia) are fighting at Ternova. Russian state media organization Anna claims that Russia has taken back Ternova and Rubihzne (the one in Kharkiv) to the Siverskyi Donets River. We're not very convinced. Russia fired a lot of artillery on Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv, but most of it hit civilian areas. Local officials are begging residents who lived north of the city not to return yet due to the shelling, Russian booby traps, and landmines. Some Pro-Russian accounts are reporting Russia is fighting to "take back" Kozacha Lopan. We don't think that is accurate because Kozacha Lopan is/was a Russian strong point, likely the last one not defended by DNR/LNR troops. On the east side of the Siverskyi Donets River, there were signs of fighting at Buhaivka, which would indicate Ukrainian forces are advancing north from Zarchine. We remain steadfast that Ukrainian forces have successfully crossed the river, but we have no information on how or large the force is.

Izyum Axis: Our map has shown Russian forces control Velyka Komyshuvakha in southwest Izyum but that is no longer the case. Russian forces tried to retake the settlement and suffered heavy losses. We've moved away from tracking individual settlements in this area because control swaps frequently, but this is significant, as Zaovdy is now under additional pressure from three sides. Ukrainian forces continue to interdict Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC - aka supply lines) on the west side of the Oskil River. Dovhenke was moved to disputed, but we never felt the settlement was fully under Russian control at any point (and might be back under Russian control tomorrow)

Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia: Russian forces are using artillery and MLRS to target Ukrainian positions, civilians, and civilian infrastructure on the edges of Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. This region has entered the true definition of trench warfare. Pro-Russian forces are reporting of a coming "large offensive" on Mykolaiv, there isn't enough troops strength in the area to be successful. Russian forces are simply trying to hold the territory they have and are likely incapable of advancing in force.

Chernihiv & Sumy: The Russian strike on the Desna training base on 5/17 has likely killed hundreds of soldiers. No official number has been given but 200 to 300 being shared by Pro-Russian accounts is likely accurate. Shelling along the Chernihiv and Sumy borders to Russia continues, but these are not an indication of a larger pending offensive.

Kyiv: There weren't any major developments today.

Odesa and the Black Sea:  Russia continues to target Odesa with missile strikes while blaming Ukraine for the lack of shipping traffic on sea mines. Since Russian forces have rearmed the garrison on Snake Island, naval activity is increasing in the region again. The fact that Russia is having to use sea-to-sea missiles to strike land targets, indicates they have a dwindling supply of munitions. The lack of Air Force operations in Ukraine is a strong indicator that Russia does not have air dominance, and is not willing to risk its air assets to establish it.

Western Ukraine: There weren't any major events today.

Theaterwide Developments: Russia reported they now have drone destroying laser weapons in Ukraine! Even if they do, they aren't going to change the situation and lasers don't work well when it is dusty, smoky, raining, or low clouds because a laser is light, and particles scatter the light.

The United States Senate approved $39.8 billion in spending to support Ukraine. $11 billion is available immediately to support the missing and President Joe Biden announced that "advanced weapons" would be included in the package. There are a lot of rumors, but no specifics.

Germany has agreed to provide the Czech Republic with 15 Leopard 2 A4-Panzer main battle tanks, so the Czechs can donate more tanks to Ukraine in a "ring deal" that leaves Germany out of the position of providing "direct aid." A lot of these German deals come with "at the end of the year" strings attached, there was no information on timing.

The UK Ministry of Defense is reporting that Lieutenant-General Serhiy Kisel, who commanded the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, has been suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. The UK MoD also repeated the earlier report that Vice-Admiral Igor Osipov, who commanded Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, was likely suspended due to the loss of the Moskva.

United States Joint Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, spoke by telephone with his Russian counterpart General Valery Gerasimov, the Pentagon said on Thursday, the first conversation between the two since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February.

"The military leaders discussed several security-related issues of concern and agreed to keep the lines of communication open," said a spokesman for Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.

"In accordance with past practice, the specific details of their conversation will be kept private," the spokesman added.

The phone call is the first public acknowledgment that Gerasimov remains the chief of staff, after his absence at the May 9 Victory Day Parade.

Assessment: We see this as a very positive sign that Russian and United States military leaders have reopened lines of communication. These are critical steps to prevent further escalation or misunderstandings. This has reduced our concern about being stuck in the Mutually Assured Destruction Instability Paradox.

War Crimes and Human Rights: Russian soldiers Alexander Bobykin and Alexander Ivanov pled guilty to violating the customs of war after evidence was presented showing they fired Grad rockets from an MLRS in the Poltava region during the opening days of the war. 

Russian soldier, Vadim Shishimarin, 21, who pled guilty to the killing of an unarmed 62-year-old Ukrainian man in late February apologized to the victim's wife and begged for forgiveness.

"Yes, I acknowledge my fault. I understand that you will not be able to forgive me, but I am sorry," Shishimarin said in the courtroom on Thursday,

The widow asked the court to issue a life sentence and called her late husband her protector. Shishimarin claims they were retreating in a stolen car when they saw the man on the bicycle. An officer ordered him to shoot the man because he could give away their position, but he claims to have refused. He said a second officer ordered him to fire, and he felt compelled to obey the unlawful order.

On March 15, as Ukrainian forces rushed into a Mariupol hospital demanding to know where the journalists are, Yuliia Paievska, a combat medic handed one of them a thumb drive with 256 GB of GoPro video on it from the first two weeks of the siege of the city. The data was transferred to a micro SD card, inserted into a tampon, and smuggled out of Mariupol after passing through 15 Russian checkpoints. The Associated Press released 4-1/2 minutes of video, viewer discretion is very strongly advised. Paievska was captured by Russian forces on March 21 and labeled an extremist. She has not been heard from since. Her videos showed her rescuing and treating Russian soldiers and defending her work as the right thing because they are prisoners. 

Economic:  Google's Russian subsidiary has been forced into bankruptcy after the Russian government seized their bank accounts. The seizure has made it impossible for Google to pay its employees or vendors. 

The rouble improved again to 62 for 1 US dollar. WTI and Brent crude declined slightly, as did United States whole gasoline. 

Additional: Twitter has announced it is going to crack down on tweets and accounts that post false information about Ukraine, and the military situation and share debunked information about war crimes and human rights abuses. Our experience has been these programs never work well, and tend to catch legitimate accounts sharing information. We applaud the decision, but without human oversight this will likely not go well.