Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-23-22 09:45 PDT - Lyman Offensive and Popasna Update

Russian forces launched a major offensive on Lyman and advanced into parts of the city. NASA FIRMS and Sentinel One imagery shows significant fighting in the city. Due to repeated exaggerations of Russian gains at the Severodonetsk salient and on the Severodnetsk westward offensive for months, we are skeptical of reports that Russia has control or partial control of the city. We consider control contested city-wide, with no change in the current territorial map until we get verifiable data.

Around Popasna, other analysts are reaching the same conclusion we made last night - Russian advances were overstated, territorial gains aren't as big as previously thought, and the offensive has slowed down. We maintain that Russian forces hold Torske, but we are investigating if that is overstated.

Russian troops did advance into Myronivski, and it appears they bypassed Torske in the process (hence the question of territorial control).

Two other quick footnotes. It does not appear the situation around Severodonetsk has changed overnight. 

You may have heard that another Russian general was killed while flying a Su-25 - it's true, but it isn't what you think. Major General Kanamat Huseevich Botashev was fired from the Russian military after his involvement in the loss of a Su-27 involved in a command privilege pleasure flight during dangerous aerobatic maneuvers. 

To quote the movie Top Gun, his ego wrote checks his body couldn't cash.

He was an experienced Su-24, Mig-25, and Su-27 pilot. Botashev was flying for Wagner Group PMC, which owns Su-25 ground attack aircraft. Wagner Group released a video last week showing at least one of its Su-25s engaged in action in the Donbas. It is believed that Botashev was flying the aircraft.

The reports that a Russian "general" was killed appear true - but Botashev was dismissed from the military in disgrace nine years ago, and was operating as a mercenary.