Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 02 NOV 2022 11:00 PDT - Frozen Fronts and Russia Caves In

The battlefield in Ukraine is lost in a time warp to another era.

From the Kharkiv-Luhansk administrative border to Bilohorivka in Donetsk (that's a big area), it is like a World War II battlefront. Artillery, positional fighting, and attempts to move the line.

East of Soldar-Bakhmut to Mayorsk, it is World War I trench warfare. Mud, barren landscape, cratered fields, snipers, artillery, and penal units of PMC Wagner doing charges into the defensive lines Ukraine reestablished. It is darn close to the same situation west of Donetsk.

Around Pavlivka and Prechystivka, it is also like World War II. The Russian offensive that started four days ago has been stopped despite continued attacks. This is where the bulk of Russian casualties are happening, with continued reports that the offensive is being conducted mostly by light infantry mobiks with little to no armor support backed by artillery. Real World War II desperation stuff coming from the aggressor, not the defender. If you know where to look, there are some extremely graphic pictures of roads littered with Russian bodies on Telegram. Careful of what you search for.

As for the grain deal, our assessment from October 31 aged extremely well. The Kremlin apparently figured out they had painted themselves into a corner with no viable way to look strong. The Kremlin rejoined the grain shipping deal today after "assurances" the Black Sea Fleet won't be attacked from the corridor. Which it wasn't in the first place, and the request for that assurance has been mocked in the Russian milblogger community.

The early morning missile and drone attacks were almost completely ineffective - almost. Ukraine shot down over 90% of incoming cruise missiles and Shahed-136 drones. It can be frustrating that even one getting through is not good enough, and 40% of Ukraine's electrical infrastructure has been destroyed, but air defenses are doing a good job.

That's what we know.