Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 03 NOV 2022 15:00 PDT - Kherson and Donetsk Update

People smarter than us (although I think our team is pretty sharp) are agreeing that Russia is setting conditions for a full withdrawal west of the Dnipro.

In Snihurivka, Russian troops started blowing up bridges, which is something troops don't do if they are planning to continue to advance.

There are pictures and resident reports that Russian troops have withdrawn and abandoned checkpoints in Chornobaivka, Stepanivka, Pryozerne, and Bilozerka.

Russian troops are blowing up watercraft in the port in Kherson and finished dropping the cellular communications tower along the Dnipro. There is a report that occupiers have left the FSB offices and police stations and released the political prisoners they were holding.

What about the troops that have been arriving?

As we had noted in our analysis, we have seen a steady withdrawal of elite Russian units with one exception, and them being replaced by poorly equipped mobiks. We have also noted a sharp reduction in artillery fire by Ukraine and Russia, and fighting becoming more positional. Weather, ammunition, and fuel shortages specific to Russian troops, likely contributed to some of the slowdowns.

GSAFU reported 35 settlements were shelled by Russian forces in the AM report but once again didn't list which communities. That is an increase from the last week. What we don't know is, were more shells were fired or did Russia fire the same quantity spread over more areas.

I realize the next question is about the dam and whether Russia blows it up. The destruction of the dam would risk causing a meltdown at ZNPP and could cut off the water supply to Crimea. We just don't see it happening. We could see Russia sabotaging the hydroelectric power plant to cut off a source of electricity, and destroying the temporary gravel bridge they built in the spillway. 

The British Ministry of Defense Intelligence also confirmed the catastrophic Russian losses we have been reporting through the second half of October. UK defense officials reported that Russia has been losing 40 armored vehicles a day since mid-October - the equivalent of losing an entire battalion. Not combat destroyed - destroyed. This would be unsustainable for any military on the planet. As we have reported, the mobiks are serving as speed bumps slowing down Ukrainian offensive operations, but they have not significantly impacted the theater of operations. You could argue that the mobiks have moved the Russian army from combat destroyed to combat ineffective, capable of mounting a defense but incapable of nothing more than localized offensive operations on a small scale.

There are reports that Russian forces are scaling back their attempts to advance on Pavlivka, blaming "weather conditions." What's interesting is the weather has improved significantly in that region and would favor an aggressor. It is far more likely that they have exhausted their combat strength.

One last thought - a couple of subscribers have sent messages through Patreon asking where they can see some of the casualty pictures we aren't sharing. You'll need to ask on another platform due to terms of service on Patreon.