Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 21 SEP 2022 11:45 PDT - Anger, Fear, Escape

There are a lot of rumors, and for men of military age who are in the first wave of mobilization, not a lot of desire to go to Ukraine.

• The reports (as of this writing) that men 18 to 65 are barred from buying plane tickets to leave Russia are not true, however, the airlines are using the word "yet," when asked
• There are reports that men 18 to 65 are being denied the ability to buy train tickets to leave; this is unconfirmed
• Tickets for direct flights out of Russia to countries that don't require a visa for travel sold out before Putin's speech, and the cost of a one-way ticket to some cities is the equivalent of five months' salary
• There are protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, which was expected, but there are also protests in the east. They are small, relatively speaking, and being met with violence by police and rosgvardiya
• The rouble has settled slightly lower than where it was before the announcement but was volatile in the hours leading up to it

The growing consensus is that the mobilization will backfire on the Kremlin and will likely accelerate the collapse of the Russian armed forces, not slow it down. As we noted in our report, the "patriots" have already stepped forward, and the well is now dry. Veterans talk to each other, and they know the real story. A common story from Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine who fought in Syria? Syria was "kindergarten" compared to Ukraine.

The corruption, broken promises, lack of medical care, shooting wounded soldiers in the field, and lack of promised bonuses and combat pay are all well-known in military circles. They may hate Ukraine, they may be fully indoctrinated into the idea of Russia has no boundaries and they are in an open war with NATO, but they are also fully aware that the Kremlin is treating their military as disposable.

Another change that happened, as we assessed, is that troops already deployed have been "stop lossed," as the Kremlin was facing tens of thousands of soldiers and contract "volunteers" whose contracts were ending. Currently deployed troops on contracts that signed up for 200,000 rouble signing bonuses and 250,000 roubles a month pay if they can survive six months and now stuck indefinitely in Ukraine. Once those contracts expire, they'll be paid as any other Russian soldier.

Morale in the Russian military is already low, and the mobilization doesn't solve the issue of the loss of mentors, instructors, or senior officers with deep combat experience. There is no indication that the Kremlin plans to adjust to NATO tactics of combined arms maneuver warfare. We're stunned that the view, at least publicly, is that Kharkiv was fought not against Ukraine armed with NATO weapons but against NATO itself. 

A key point that celebrating Russian milbloggers are going to miss is that most of the forces being mobilized will not support net new units. They are being brought in to stabilize the Russian army because, without a massive influx of warm, breathing bodies, the Russian army is on the brink of collapse.

There is general outrage in the political sphere over the announcements of annexation, sham referendums, and the threats of nuclear weapons. Turkish leaders have said they will not recognize the referendum, which is significant given the control Turkey has over the Black Sea.

While Russia is forcibly mobilizing its society, Ukraine has to turn people away at the recruiting offices because the issue still remains a lack of weapons to equip their mobilized force.