TheMalcontent

Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 23 SEP 2022 14:15 PDT - Oskil River and Housekeeping

Added 2022-09-23 21:31:21 +0000 UTC

There remains a lot of fog of war, and Ukraine isn't saying anything. Based on social intelligence and some very reliable reports, it appears Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines north of Lyman in two locations. At Korovii Iar, as we reported in the Situation Report, moving both east and south, and at Rubtsi moving north.

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Yatskivka had been liberated, but let's remember something. Ukraine said they would no longer confirm liberation until a town was 100% cleared and reasonably out of artillery range (MLRS is tubed artillery). Video shows that Yatskivka is liberated.This would strongly indicate that Rubtsi is liberated (we have not adjusted the map). The two towns are adjacent to each other, with no forest between them.

Very reliable local reports of fighting in Pisky-Radkivski, which is north of Lozove and in the direction of Borova. Russian forces claimed Ukraine had liberated Lozove yesterday, and we dismissed it because we would have expected more social chatter. We have not adjusted the map because we need more data.

There are unconfirmed reports of Novoselivka, east of Yarova is liberated, and Drobysheve is a partial no man's land. There are reports that Borova was shelled, and the civilian situation is very difficult. Local officials were appealing to residents east of the Oskil not to attempt to cross the river, saying it was too dangerous and the area has been heavily mined.

If all of this is true, the Russian troops in Lyman are well past the point they should retreat out of the city. Take Lyman, and the gateway to Kreminna and Lysychansk/Siverodonetsk is opened.