Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 24 SEP 2022 15:30 PDT - Breakthrough and MADIP

We've been waiting for video evidence, and now we have some. The Russian Air Force had a really bad today, losing a Ka-52, Su-25, Su-30, and Su-34. The Ukrainian Air Force claims another Su-30 was shot down, but there wasn't a video of that incident. The Su-34 suffered a near hit or had a mechanical failure and was able to fly out of the combat zone with one engine flaming out. It is unlikely that airframe will be able to return to combat in the near future.

The bigger news is two of the recorded shootdowns with MANPADS were over Maliivka, with the Russian Air Force clearly firing on Ukrainian positions. This is much further north of Lyman than initially believed.

If there are any Russian troops left in Drobysheve, they are encircled. Their only option is to retreat through the woods to Lyman, which is in a technical encirclement. they could move east toward Zarichne also, a further and more dangerous maneuver.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cranked up the nuclear weapons rhetoric when asked if the Russian deterrent doctrine would apply to annexed territories in Ukraine.

"The entire territory of the Russian Federation, which is enshrined and can be additionally enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, is, of course, under the full protection of the state; this is absolutely natural. All laws, doctrines, concepts, and strategies of the Russian Federation apply to its entire territory."

Although we continue to believe this is bluster, we're forced to move things along the Mutually Assured Destruction Instability Paradox path between steps 3 to 4 if we were to put this on an imaginary ten-step scale. This is a different message and threat from February and March, where the message was don't get involved. This is the implication that between September 28 and October 1, any fighting in the sham referendum territories will be treated as a direct attack on Russia.

The counterargument is Ukraine has already directly attacked Russia multiple times, as well as Russian-occupied Crimea, and there has been no response. There are no signs that Russia is preparing its nuclear forces for any action, at least in the public domain. 

To use the United States DEFCON system, which goes from 5 to 1.

DEFCON 5 - just another day at the office - full stand down - the gun is in the gun locker

DEFCON 4 - some stuff is going on in the world, and it is being watched - and this is where the nuclear deterrent of the United States spends a lot of time - the gun is in the desk drawer

DEFCON 3 - certain forces are mobilized, and bombers are ready to go on short notice - the gun is in the holster with a full clip and one in the chamber, and the safety is on

DEFCON 2 - system fully activated, President and other leaders moved to safe locations or airborne, Doomsday planes, Cobra Balls, and E-6 fleet is airborne, bombers are airborne - the gun is out of the holster, the safety is off, the finger is on the trigger, and it is being pointed directly at a target

DEFCON 1 - commitment - the point of no-return - the gun has been fired in anger or defense 

We're still at DEFCON 4, so relax.