Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 29 SEP 2022 14:45 PDT - It's Going to be a Long Night

Russian troops in Drobysheve, Lyman, and maybe Yampil (keep reading) and fully encircled. The small gap where Ukrainian forces have yet to link up is mined, under Ukrainian fire control, and has special operation forces operating. The Zherberts River is enough of a barrier for equipment but not personnel, the southern end of the reservoir is a natural barrier.

Now come the questions

• How many troops are in the encirclement
• How much of the remaining reserves of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which was already combat destroyed, got stuck in the encirclement - if any
• How much fight is left in the surrounded forces now that retreat and resupply are impossible
• Will Ukraine be forced to fight house-to-house to clear these areas if Russian forces refuse to surrender
• What will the civilian impact be - reportedly, up to 10,000 civilians still live in Lyman, and there is no information if the Donetsk People's Republic had let them evacuate
• Ukraine hit Russian troop concentrations in Zolote, Vrubivka, Kreminna, and Svatove with HIMARS, all in the early morning of September 29

ASSESSMENT

• Unconfirmed reports Russian troops retreated from Yampil - if it is true, it wasn't done willingly - this is part of what closed the cauldron
• It appears, given how poorly this was managed, that the rumors of Russian President Vladimir Putin personally directing the military action in this region are accurate - everyone, including the Russian milblogging community, could see this coming by Monday
• Russian forces should have retreated no later than Tuesday
• Everything from Svatove to Lysychansk is now in play
• The Russian Ministry of Defense can rush all of the untrained conscripts it wants into this area
• Without established defensive lines, rushing untrained bodies without artillery support will only serve to slow the advance and waste Russian resources further
• Numbers tossed out about possible Russian troop numbers range from 300 to 2,000
• Both belligerents have shown an excellent ability to retreat human capital while abandoning equipment, but this is the largest and tightest encirclement of the war