Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 14 MAY 2023 12:45 PDT - More Ukraine Gains Near Bakhmut

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Ukrainian forces have cleared large areas of the Ivanivske forest track south of Ivanivske and west of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal, as we had previously assessed would happen. The area became a salient, and with Russian artillery activity restricted in Klishchiivka due to Ukrainian counterbattery and advances, this was only a matter of time.

Additional smaller advances have been made north of Bakhmut in the direction of Berkhivka, and Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for an attack on the village, with the Russian M-03 Highway GLOC under heavy artillery fire. Prigozhin confirmed our earlier assessment, backed by WarGonzo on May 13, that PMC Wagner and Russian forces withdrew to Berkhivka.

Prigozhin is claiming that Wagner forces secured another one square kilometer of territory within Bakhmut itself, but we're not seeing geolocated videos to support this. On the contrary, another video showed Ukrainian armor striking Russian positions east of the Industrial School, and we moved the line of conflict east another block but left the area as no man's land. Ukrainian forces described fighting within Bakhmut as "Hell" but were holding their positions.

If you're wondering why PMC Wagner is still fighting for Bakhmut while the flanks are in collapse, this is a political move. Prigozhin has set the goal posts of "capture Bakhmut, go home," so it is possible that PMC Wagner will declare victory even though it is not achieved. This would, in theory, set the stage to transfer control to Russian units. Russian units that are understaffed, poorly equipped, have minimal training and lack armor support.

The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that two commanders were killed in Klishchiivka. Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov, commander of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called Luhansk People's Republic, and the deputy commander for military-political work, Colonel Yevgeny Brovko. The two commanders and 20 to 40 additional support troops and junior officers were killed in an artillery strike.

Here is the biggest news of the last 24 hours that isn't being picked up, but now you're in the know. Political officers within the Russian military assure that soldiers and officers adhere to the Kremlin guidelines and support the Russian Federation's social and political messaging. To oversimplify, they are the thought police, and one of their functions is to command blocking troops. Blocking troops was first introduced in Ukraine in April 2022 in Mariupol, and their use has been well documented. Russian units play a role, but most of the work has fallen to Chechen Akhmat, operating in the third echelon.

The death of a senior political officer close to the forward line of friendly troops, and in Klishchiivka, the line between the 1st and 2nd echelon of Russian defenses has become blurry, indicates three possibilities.

1) Russian forces are suffering a shortage of command officers, and Colonel Brovko was moved up to solve problems with communications and the inability or unwillingness to follow orders. That's the best-case scenario.

2) Blocking troops are operating in Klishchiivka because of documented abandonment of positions by the 4th Motor Infantry Brigade and Prigozhin's public allegation that his mercenaries had started shooting fleeing Russian troops. If the situation was under control, it is unlikely Colonel Brovko would be at the Russian command post in Klischchiivka. Senior officers come to the front lines when their orders aren't being fulfilled or a breakdown in communications.

3) Russian blocking troops have been pressed into the role of light infantry forces in the defense of Klishchiivka, and they needed senior officer - motivation - to move from the role of thought police/enforces to fighting Ukrainian troops. This is the worst-case scenario because imagine the morale of units with political officers fighting and coordinating with the exact same troops there were threatening and arresting 48 hours ago.

None of these scenarios bode well for Russia.

The loss of Klishchiivka would significantly complicate PMC Wagner's desperate and pointless continued offensive operations in Bakhmut.