Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 31 MAR 2023 16:30 PDT - Almost No Fighting Today

There are a number of videos showing how much snow fell from Donetsk to Svatove, and it is a lot. It is the largest late-season storm in a decade and a record-setter for Donetsk (city). 

The heaviest snow fell in the Russian rear echelon. Along the line of conflict from Avdiivka north to Svatove, troops on both sides are buried. The only places where there was notable fighting today were within Marinka and Bakhmut.

Ukrainian sources are saying Russia tried to launch a larger and more coordinated offensive in the Kreminna Operational Area, but military planners apparently didn't check the weather forecast. It fizzled out.

Over the next 48 to 72 hours, I would not expect a lot of fighting outside of Bakhmut and Marinka. Do you think fighting with 60+ pounds of gear is hard? Try doing it while trying to stay dry in waist-deep heavy, wet snow.

With much warmer temperatures and rain on tap for next week, the line of conflict is going to turn into a mud pit along its entire length. From a logistical standpoint, this is going to hit Russian forces harder. On the Ukraine side, once you go 10 to 30 kilometers further west, there is little to no snow. On the Russian side, if you go 30 kilometers east, some places have close to 50 centimeters of snow on the ground! That isn't 50 centimeters of powder, either. This appears to be perfect snowball-making snow.

Dusting off my meteorological hat, every 10 inches of snow, about 25 centimeters, is equal to 1 inch (2.6 centimeters) of rain as a quick calculation (wet snow holds more moisture, dry powder holds less). In the Russian rear echelon, where the soil was already at 100% saturation, it will be like 5.2 centimeters of rain falling when this melts off over a very short period of time, in addition to more rain.

On the line of conflict, it will be closer to 2.6 to 3.0 centimeters of rain, except near Svatove, Kreminna, and Bilohorivka, which are buried.

So both combatants are going to have a huge mud problem, the line of conflict is likely going to be paralyzed for a few days, but the Ukrainian rear echelon will dry out before the Russian side. This is not a case of a huge advantage for Ukraine but a tactical one.

It will be interesting to see just how "day-to-day" Russian units are with ammunition for artillery, as many are claiming.

We've been asked by a few people - is this the time to launch an attack? Unless one of the combatants has 20,000 troops equipped and trained in biathlon with cross-country skies, winter camo, and supporting equipment - not a chance in Hell.