Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 20 APR 2023 23:30 - I'm A Grandpa - Again - Edition

Today is a condensed report because, at 12:52 hours PDT, the daughter-in-law gave birth to a healthy baby boy named Boris, who weighed in at 7 pounds even (3.18 kilograms). Mom and baby are doing fantastic, and stepson number one is exhausted.

Today's report is condensed with no PDF. Here is some insider information. This is a slightly edited version of our internal intel report, which becomes the foundation of the daily SITREP.

KHARKIV

Dvorichna Operational Area - map 

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported fighting among squad-sized units in the area of Synkivka with no change in the situation. As previously assessed, this is likely in the forest north of the village.

Kupyansk Operational Area - map 

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported fighting among squad-sized units in the area of Orlyanske. If you're fact-checking, Timkovka is a speck on the map adjacent to Orlyankse.

LUHANSK

Svatove Operational Area - map 

• Russian Ministry of Defense reported fighting among squad-sized units in the area of Railhorodka.
• We're seeing activity that would support Ukraine is setting conditions, or creating the illusion of setting conditions, in the Svatove OA.

Kreminna Operational Area - map 

• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian sources reported positional fighting on the southern edge of Kreminna.
• Russian mercenary milblogger WarGonzo reported that the fighting in the area of Kreminna was in the forested region and treelines west of the city. There was no change to the situation.
• There were multiple reports of positional fighting in the Serebryanskyy Forest and the Siverskyi Donets River floodplain west of Shypylivka.

Lysychansk Operational Area - map

• The Luhansk Oblast OVA reported fighting "near" Bilohorivka. There were no other sources that claimed activity in the area.

DONBAS REGION

NORTHEAST DONETSK

Siversk Operational Area - map

• No activity

Soledar Operational Area - map

• No activity

Bakhmut Operational Area - map 

• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported they completed 64 fire missions through the Soledar, Bakhmut, and Kostyantynivka Operational Areas/Direction, and ten close air support sorties were conducted by Russian army aviation and the VKS.
• PMC Wagner soldiers interviewed by Russian state media agency Shot claimed that Ukrainian forces have no shortage of artillery ammunition and both combatants are shelling each other "non-stop."
• PMC Wagner had some success advancing down a treeline southeast of Bohdanivka toward the T-506 Highway GLOC. This is likely hindering the use of the highway through Khromove, but it is worth noting that Wagner mercenaries have been here before, and they have a very exposed flank. The map was updated.
• In the northern part of Bakhmut no change. Fighting continues on the southern edge of Rose Alley.
• In the central part of Bakhmut, Russian mercenary milblogger Rybar claims that Hotel Transit was captured by Russian forces. We're skeptical of the claim due to the low quality of information from the milbloggers and no associated claim from PMC Wagner.
• Fighting continues around Railroad Stations 1 and 2, as well as the grain elevators.
• In southern Bakhmut, PMC Wagner advanced to Skovordy Lane. The map was updated.
• In southwestern Bakhmut, there were no reports of fighting on Korsunskogo Street, the T-504 Highway junction by the former Mig-17 statue, or near Ivanivske.

Kostyantynivka Operational Direction - map

• No activity

SOUTHWEST DONETSK

Toretsk/Niu York Operational Direction - map

• No activity

Avdiivka Operational Area - map

• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops attempted to attack in the area of Kamyanka, with WarGonzo reporting a failed advance on Avdiivka from the southwest. These reports reference the same failed Russian attack.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and WarGonzo also reported a failed direct attack on Avdiivka, with neither reporting a direction.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported fighting in the no man's land between Sjeverne and Vodyane. Russian sources claim some success, and Ukrainian sources reported the attacks were repulsed. It is likely treelines and trenches swapped control throughout the day.
• A platoon of Russian soldiers supported by two infantry fighting vehicles attempted to advance into Pervomaiske from Pisky. They were immediately attacked when they reached the E-50 Highway Bridge, with one IFV destroyed. The rest of the forces retreated, leaving the dismounts of the disabled IFV behind.
• Russian forces tried a night attack east of the Ukrainian firebase at Nevelske, which failed.

Marinka Operational Area - map

• Fighting along Druzhby Avenue continued with Rybar claiming that this time, and we really mean it, Russian forces have crossed the former center of the city and have Ukrainian forces partially surrounded. War Gonzo reported that today's attacks failed.
• Russian forces continued attempts to recapture positions they gave up east of Pobjeda.

Vuhledar Operational Area - map

• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces made multiple attacks that were repulsed. There were no claims of fighting from Russian sources.
• WarGonzo reported that Ukrainian forces attacked the southern part of Pavlivka using reconnaissance in force. This is likely reporting the video we shared yesterday of fighting in the center of the contested settlement.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported fighting in the area of Prechistivka.

Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction - map

• No activity

ZAPORIZHIA

Hulyaipole Operational Direction - map

• No activity

Orikhiv Operational Direction - map

• No activity

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

• No update

Occupied Zaporizhia

• No activity

BLACK SEA/CRIMEA/MYKOLAIV/ODESA

• The Black Sea Fleet has 11 vessels on patrol, including three missile carriers capable of launching up to 13 Kalibr cruise missiles. We are unsure of the deployed vessels, and insurgents in Sevastopol did not share shipping activity today.
• In the Saki area of occupied Crimea, a new tourist attraction has been added. Signs have been placed warning residents to stay off of the beaches due to landmines.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL UKRAINE

Kherson

• Russian claim that Ukrainian forces have set up a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro River near the Antonovskyy Bridge. In our assessment, Ukrainian DRG and SOF units have been active on the left bank. This isn't a surprise and has been established for months. Ukraine has established FOBs on the islands east of Kherson in the Dnipro Delta, which don't have a lot of strategic value. Well-equipped and well-trained SOF units supported by the indigenous population can create an impression of a significantly larger force. We don't believe there is a bridgehead with active Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC), but we do believe that the complaints within the original Russian claim about ammunition shortages and a breakdown of command and control over getting permission for fire missions are true. It is more likely by exaggerating the situation, local commanders are hoping to get more ammunition and better autonomy for artillery strikes.

Poltava

• Two Iranian-sourced Shahed-136 kamikaze drones struck civilian infrastructure in the city of Poltava, causing a fire. There were no casualties reported. 

NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE 

Kyiv

• Ukrainian air defenses intercepted eight Iranian-sourced Shahed-136 kamikaze drones with no damage or casualties reported.

Chernihiv

• An Iranian-sourced Shahed-136 kamikaze drone failed during its flight and crashed intact. Explosive ordnance disposal experts were able to defuse the drone, which was collected by state border guards.

RUSSIAN FRONT

Belgorod

• The official Russian version explaining the explosion in Belgorod is a Su-34 experienced an anomaly, and a bomb was accidentally dropped on the city. A handful of videos and pictures show cars flipped over, broken windows, shattered apartments, and facades heavily damaged on buildings. Russian officials initially claimed there were no casualties. They now report two people were wounded, a woman with a serious head injury and another who refused medical treatment.

Tuva

• A few days ago, we reported that an M-SHORAD air defense system was heavily damaged in a traffic accident in Germany. This was met with ridicule by Russian social media. In Tuva, Russia, there was a karmic rebalancing of the universe as a Russian S-400 air defense system lost control on the highway and rolled over into a ditch.

Russian Navy Northern Fleet

• In a report in TASS, the Russian Ministry of Defense is considering retiring the heavy nuclear missile carrier and the flagship of the Northern Fleet of Russia, Peter the Great, due to the cost of refitting the vessel. Four Kirov-class cruisers were built by the Soviet Union, with the Peter the Great (previously named the Yuri Andropov) launched in 1989 but not commissioned until 1998. The Admiral Nakhimov, commissioned in 1988, is undergoing a refit. The other two vessels were scrapped in 2021. If retired, the Russian navy would be left with one heavy cruiser, two Slava-class missile cruisers, seven destroyers, 11 green water frigates, 11 ballistic submarines, and an assortment of almost four-dozen attack submarines in active service. Russia's only aircraft carrier, the Kuznetsov, is also under refit and isn't expected to return to service until 2024.
• The Northern Fleet of Russia is still conducting a snap drill, which apparently has not gone well. Admiral Sergei Avakyants, who has commanded the Northern Fleet since 2019, was fired by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev confirmed that Avakyants had been relieved of command.

THEATERWIDE

Ukraine

• Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, validated our earlier assessment that Ukraine has taken the initiative on the battlefield, declaring that while Russia is still conducting tactical offensive operations theaterwide, they have moved to strategic defense. "The most combat-ready part of the Russian army has been destroyed in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin destroyed it by sending it to the meat grinder."

RUSSIAN MOBIKS

St. Petersburg

• Russia's promise not to issue electronic subpoenas until the fall conscription cycle lasted less than 72 hours. In the Leningrad region (St. Petersburg), residents were reporting that summons to the commissariat were being sent via SMS text and app. Area officials said that paper subpoenas were also being sent but didn't remind people of the small detail that the summonses are considered delivered the moment it reaches the mobile device. 

GEOPOLITICS

Did 20 United States Senators send a letter to U.S. President Joe Biden demanding the discontinuation of aid to Ukraine?

• No. The letter was drafted by U.S. Senators J.D. Vance and Rand Paul and had 18 additional signatories from the House of Representatives. The 18 House Reps are from the MAGA -aligned Freedom Caucus. The only new name to appear on a letter is Senator J.D. Vance. This does not represent a shift in U.S. Senate policy or an erosion of support in the chamber.