Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 23 APR 2023 17:45 PDT - Ukraine Lost Control of Spirne Gas Compressors and it is Good News

What kind of Kentucky Fried Chicken spin master statement is that? How can Ukraine losing ground in Spirne be good news?

Because it is who captured the gas compressor station.

Chechen Akhmat.

Video shows Chechen Akhmat in control of the hard point, which Ukraine and Russia have traded back and forth since June 2022, but this does tell us something.

The only time Chechens are on the front lines of fighting is when there are no other options or when a unit has really angered Russian commanders.

In Mariupol, Chechen videos were geolocated 7 to 10 kilometers away from the fighting many times or taking credit for areas captured by the Donetsk People's Republic 1st Army Corps, the Russian 810th Naval Infantry, or the 58th. This didn't go over well.

They took that same energy to Severodonetsk-Lysychansk and got their cameras taken away. They were sent to the front lines, and Akhmat became combat destroyed.

Since August, after they were given the defense of Mayorsk near Bakhmut and in 48 hours lost what took the 1st Army Corps two months, they were relegated to blocking troops, Rosgvardia, and military police. If Chechens move to the front line as shock troops, there are a force of last resort.

So what does this tell us?

First, Ukrainian forces were likely taken by surprise by a larger attack enhanced by the Chechen forces sent in. Second, that Russian reserve forces are reaching exhaustion if occupied territory Rosgvardia and military police are being sent to the forward line of conflict. Akhmat has not shown any capacity to hold their territorial gains.

We've seen Chechen forces on the front lines in Zaporizhia also, which ties to the ongoing situation in Kherson. There are extensive reports that better-equipped and staffed Russian units have been pulled back to Crimea in the south. In the north, Russian forces are being rotated out of Kreminna and Avdiivka to maintain fighting in the Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk Operational Areas.

We don't think this is a case of the Russian Ministry of Defense holding back reserves. For example, if that was the case, why use the third echelon for a rather pointless attack in an area with little tactical or strategic meaning? 

If Chechens have moved to the front, the Russian Ministry of Defense is running out of eastern district mobiks, 1st and 2nd Army Corps proxy forces, penal units, mobiks forced into volunteer service, and PMC mercenaries to do the most dangerous fighting.

A final thought. Anywhere Chechen Akhmat shows up, no one is safe. Russians, Ukrainians, civilians, mercenaries, other Chechens, traffic lights, street signs, windows...