What Happened

Last night, at 23:30 PDT I had to rush my wife to the hospital with an eye injury. We're back home, and she has a consult on Monday. By the time we got back, it was too late to assemble the SITREP, so today's report will be a supersized 2X makeup report.

Biggest things from yesterday.

• Ukrainian retrograde operation in Bakhmut continues. It is only a matter of time now.
• Ukrainian forces made progress in the no man's land north of Vodyane and Opytne. It isn't enough to adjust the map, fighting continues in the same tree line. However, Russian forces suffered very heavy losses.
• Ukrainian forces took back a sizeable piece of Pavlivka (near Vuhledar). What took the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry, supported by the 11th of the 1st Army Corps, two months was taken back in 12 hours.
• After making marginal gains in the Serebryanskyy Woods, Russian reports indicate they've been pushed back - but this isn't significant.
• Opposition situation near Dibrova, Russian forces made gains to the northwest, but this is in an area we had previously assessed was under Russian control.

The biggest news yesterday is the weather forecast and soil moisture models have improved. It is still not favorable for large-scale military operations out to March 8, but the trend is in the right direction. 

We're back on TikTok (if you haven't noticed) and did a video yesterday afternoon about Yevgeny Prigozhin's interview with Seymon Pegov of WarGonzo. The "if we don't get ammunition and support, we're abandoning our positions" deadline Prigozhin made has come and gone (it was an empty threat). We don't believe that Wagner is suffering from ammunition shortages, but Prigozhin's lament that he is going to lose a large portion of his force in the next two to three weeks is accurate, as we've documented for months. Prigozhin and PMC Wagner are not going "into history," as he claims. There are over 10K mercenaries in six African nations.