TheMalcontent

TheMalcontent

Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast for June 28, 2023

Added 2023-06-29 05:42:09 +0000 UTC

The Russia-Ukraine War Report provides comprehensive, fact-based news coverage about the war in Ukraine. Our team of journalists, researchers, and analysts are from Georgia, Israel, Canada, Finland, Poland, Ukraine, the U.S., and the U.K. We go beyond content aggregation and provide analysis and assessments on how today's stories shape the war's future.

Today's episode is hosted by our Chief Content Officer, David Obelcz. Today's podcast covers what led to the June 23, 2023, PMC Wagner insurrection in Russia, who was involved in the build-up, what happened on June 23 and 24, the current fallout, and what we assess is the fate for PMC Wagner and its mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Sergei Shoigu, Valery Gerasimov, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian-Ukraine War Map is a great resource to use while listening to the podcast to see the geography covered in today's podcast. If you start at Belgorod and you can follow the theater of war as we cover events across Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast for June 28, 2023

Comments

Yes - that is spot on. We (the collective we - the world) still don't know the full story. The theory floated within minutes of us finishing the podcast script (WSJ theory) that Prigozhin's plans were leaked, and so he moved prematurely, and the insurrection ending as quickly as it started was a logical conclusion in an illogical situation. We (the collective we) still don't know where Surovikin is, but we (the team) are extremely cautious to agree he is arrested/detained/under questioning. There were reports last year of several senior Kremlin officials arrested. Following journalist standards of two unique, reliable sources operating on the record, only about 50% turned out to be true. A lot of digital ink is being spilled that Surovikin was a secret honorary member of PMC Wagner, but that wasn't secret. Prigozhin was dubbed "honorary members" all the time, and when Prigozhin could do no wrong, it was eaten up like candy. I'm old enough to remember that once upon a time, almost everyone in the Russian MOD wanted a polished PMC Wagner sledgehammer and fawned over those who got one. There are plenty of reasons to get rid of Surovikin, and disloyalty - real or perceived - isn't one of them. His failures in Ukraine. The failure of the winter missile campaign to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The drone strikes within Russia, especially at Engels-2 - he ultimately is still responsible for the Russian VKS and air defenses. My personal take is Surovikin was kept with the Russian Ministry of Defense instead of dismissed outright back in January to keep an eye on him. I find it very interesting that no one appears to be asking questions about former Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, who was fired by the Russian Ministry of Defense at the end of April, joined the PMC Wagner's Commander Council a week later, toured the situation in Bakhmut personally, and 24 hours on May 5, Prigozhin declared he wasn't getting ammunition and would withdraw on May 10. Where is Mizintsev? The rumors were he was fired because he was still supplying PMC Wagner with higher than ordered allocations of ammunition, against Kremlin instructions (unconfirmed - but a lot of Russian chatter - and it's near impossible to confirm Russian chatter) It is a fair assessment that the insurrection failed because Prigozhin didn't get the support he was promised or expected. The next question is, why? It also raises another question. In 23 years, Putin has never forgiven anyone he has publicly accused of crossing him - whether they are small fish in the big pond like the members of Pussy Riot - or former close allies. Why would Prigozhin suddenly believe that he is immune from this past? I'm in hot take mode now - and of what we have seen in the last going on 18 months is an unwillingness of many senior leaders and more "professional" Russian soldiers to actually - fight - that is risking their lives in desperate combat. They hide behind proxy forces, and sometimes the proxy forces (Chechen-Akhmat and PMC Wagner) hide behind their lessers (volunteer units, penal units, DNR/LNR conscripts) until they can't hide anymore. In Luhansk, Operational Command East reported that after Storm-Z and some of the volunteer BARS units left, Russia went back to an artillery-heavy offensive followed by groups of light infantry probing defenses. If they find resistance, they immediately fall back - more artillery. The Russian 76th Airborne doesn't seem all that interested in applying Storm-Z or PMC Wagner-style tactics. Somewhere between the brave Russian, always prepared to die for their cause, and the VDV commander hiding behind DNR conscripts with rusty AK-74s, no body armor, no heavy weapons, and Ssh-68 helmets thrown to their death is reality. It appears that Prigozhin and the people he hoped would fall behind him aren't the blaze of glory types. I could be overthinking all of this, like most other analysts, and it simply could come down to Russian inertia and several centuries of not willing or wanting to stand up to make things better. The Tzar is a good Tzar, and he loves me and knows me personally. He looks out for all of our interests, even my day-to-day. He is the best leader ever - right up until the new leader arrives. We saw that on full display on the streets of Rostov-on-Don, where life as we know it is back to normal. As close to normal as it can get after June 23 - 24.

2023-06-29 22:43:33 +0000 UTC

So, the implicit conclusion is Surovikin either got cold feet or he realized that the plan wouldn’t work or someone found out that he was too complicit and threatened him. David’s description of Surovikin‘s video points in the direction of him being found out and threatened. Is that right?

2023-06-29 07:41:43 +0000 UTC

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