Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 06 JULY 2023 23:59* - For Russia - Situation Critical in Klishchiivka

Worth noting that the ICRC has just about completely abdicated their role here

No stats - Russia captured low thousands in the opening first days of the war.

I recommend everyone watch (or re-watch) Armando Iannucci's brilliant "The Death of Stalin" from 2017. It's a reminder that however strange we think things are in the Kremlin, they could be far stranger than we can imagine.

Tom Hollander, unforgettable

AnaR737

PP, you have my vote to write the screenplay. These people operate in dimensions that we can only peek at, but there are precedents like the Moscow apartment bombings, not to mention all the murders. I cannot even begin to imagine in how many ways Prigozhin, Kadyrov and those types can extract what they want from the regime. But even if we leave it to historians and fiction writers to work out, it is very interesting to see how it exposes weaknesses.

AnaR737

Also (on Prigozhin) would it be so crazy to think that he might have connections to groups who could carry out a campaign of revenge assassinations and explosions at his behest? And if they targeted the elite would ordinary Russians fear or cheer? And any Wagner troops still loyal to him can still cause a great deal of trouble (and damage) if they're so inclined even without heavy armour. The Kremlin can't risk more instability or looking weaker than they already do.

And the superb Tom Hollander as Boris Berezovsky

I just saw a "young Putin" very well played by an actor called Will Keen in the play Patriots. Bob Odenkirk can play anyone, though, I had not thought of him for Putin. I really do believe that the only reason Prigozhin is alive is he has many, many poison pills. If he goes down, many others go down with him. It is nothing new, but it works...

AnaR737

Good call on Jonathan Banks for the Prigozhin Netflix series. Just as long as I don't end up feeling any sympathy for him. So Bob Odenkirk for Putin? I'd prefer Mike Meyers as Putin. (Prigozhin is a mob boss Shrek and these characters deserve to be mocked mercilessly.) As far as why is Prigozhin still around? The Kremlin must still be afraid of him or the repercussions of arresting him. As soon as the Kremlin feels its safe to arrest (or otherwise silence) him, I'm sure they will. If this was a Breaking Bad style script then Prigozhin would definitely go down in a hail of bullets, but he'd have left a "poison pill" for his daughter to release to world media for where all the bodies are buried...

It is remarkable that he can move around and is getting his stuff back from the government in person, if reports are to be believed. Does that mean his "faction" is still supporting him from the inside? Is the Kremlin waiting for things to calm down before finishing him off? It could also be that it is too difficult to unwind the lucrative African operations and they have no alternative but to keep Wagner on some sort of life support. God knows but I really do think this whole Prigozhin thing is not over. There will be more jaw-dropping plot twists, of that I am sure. Whatever happens, when Ukraine wins the war and the Netflix series gets made I hope they choose Jonathan Banks to play him. I can't think of any other actor that can capture the complexity and charisma of this monstrous creature.

AnaR737

There must be a huge difference in numbers of POWs by now, are there any official statistics?

Wow, here's hoping it's all true...

AnaR737

In 2021, the United States budget $64B to maintain and sustain its nuclear weapons. The entire Russian military budget was $65B

The Prigozhin photos in his different disguises are hilarious and sort of reminded me of the poster for the 1985 Chevy Chase movie Fletch. Except Chevy Chase was funny and Prigozhin just looks like a murderous gangster in a series of comically bad disguises. Now there are reports that Prigozhin never went to Belarus and instead it was his body double! I hope his antics are roiling his former paymasters and he continues to entertain us with his high jinks... If (or when!) Ukraine retakes Bakhmut and Soledar in the days and weeks ahead, then that loss is surely going to spark a significant backlash in Russia. The Russians made the capture of Bakhmut appear like it was the battle of Stalingrad. They awarded medals and State TV reportedly covered it extensively. Putin's statement on Jun 16 that the Ukrainian offensive had "no chance" (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/16/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-counteroffensive.html) is aging as well as room temperature milk (to borrow a phrase I learned here) If Ukraine takes all of Russia's winter offensive gains back and inflicts yet more significant damage on their army in the process, with further progress being threatened, then that’s surely going to set off alarms and anger in Russia? Is that the moment where the Kremlin will completely lose control over the war narrative? If Prigozhin is still alive and free he will surely release audios or videos calling out the military leadership and the elite again. I just wonder if he'll wear one of his disguises...

They may not know either

This link below is to a brief but detailed "analysis" of the latest attempts by the Russians to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead over on the east bank of the Dnipro at the Antonovsky bridge. I can't vouch for the veracity of this information. It lines up with todays MN siterep. (Note: I don't personally watch any of the violent/gruesome videos - it's war porn folks! - and this video is safe and only has some aerial drone footage and maps and such.) If this is accurate it's a *really* remarkable story (which promises to keep building). I would be very curious to know if these details are being verified by other sources. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyYmX0rYMZU&list=RDCMUCcNB1tZYpeDetqCadElv9Ow&start_radio=1 Given operational security and also the scale of what's happening in Ukraine, both civilian and military, I'm sure that every day there are many stories that would otherwise be headline news, that will go unreported.

I guess the answer to that is the ones who know will not tell us....

AnaR737

I never imagined that officers from ANY army of a country with a long military history such as Russia would operate from such a pigsty as the one shown in that video. It is shantytown squalor, totally shocking and, I agree, symptomatic.

AnaR737

I read somewhere that maintaining nuclear weapons is very pricey, and very picky. Given the crap job that Russia is doing maintaining the ZPP after only one year, how likely is it that they actually have any functional nuclear war heads capable of being carried anywhere? (Given that it only takes one.)