RAB Thoughts

June 25th, 2024: Rodón, Judge, More Bullpen Trade Targets, Prospects

Added 2024-06-25 10:00:12 +0000 UTC

Watching the College World Series over the weekend made me wonder how we ever had baseball without a pitch clock. Oh there is a pitch clock in college, but it’s 20 seconds with or without runners on base, and it feels like an eternity. I can’t imagine anyone truly misses getting to the sixth inning at the three-hour mark. Rob Manfred has my Hall of Fame vote for the pitch clock alone (kidding! the BBWAA doesn’t vote on non-players anyway). Here’s what I wrote about Giancarlo Stanton’s injury and the J.D. Davis trade, and here now is today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. After losing only two of their first 20 series, the Yankees have lost four of their last five series, and are 3-7 in their last 10 games while being outscored 62-43. They started the homestand with a 1.5-game division lead and, thanks to the Astros sweeping the Orioles, escaped it with a 1.5-game division lead. The pitching staff got smacked around last week (even though Gerrit Cole returned) and the lineup is an absolute wasteland behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge now that Giancarlo Stanton is hurt. A rough stretch was bound to happen and it is happening. The benefit of getting off to such a great start is being able to weather stretches like this. At some point I’d like to see the Yankees show something against the league’s elite though. Tired of them looking inferior whenever they play the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and the like. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Rodón roughed up (and a bad few days for the pitching staff)

Back-to-back rough starts for Carlos Rodón. The Red Sox hit him pretty hard last weekend and the Braves hammered him for eight runs and three homers in 3.2 innings Friday. Atlanta is one of the best fastball hitting teams in the game and they were all over Rodón’s heater. Six balls in play on the fastball and the average exit velocity was 100.9 mph. Two singles, a double, and two homers on the pitch. Woof.

“They were definitely attacking it. I should make an adjustment quicker to try to get to the slow stuff. Need to be better, man. Not good,” Rodón told Ron Blum after the game. “... They attacked me on my strengths and they executed their swings.”

Rodón has shown a tendency to lash out at others when he struggles and he yelled at assistant pitching coach Desi Druschel in the dugout (video) – Rodón downplayed it and Aaron Boone told Blum he had “no issue with intensity coming out” – and I guess that’s just who is and what the Yankees have to put up with. The larger issue is Rodón is beginning to regress to his middling peripherals. The gap is closing:

This was bound to happen at some point. Rodón was not going to continue surrendering nothing but solo home runs – 11 homers in his first 15 starts, all solos, then two two-run shots Friday – and the inability to throw a fastball by power hitters shrinks his margin of error. Rodón’s done a good job widening his arsenal, but there is still more work to be done. The curveball and changeup still aren’t legit feature pitches.

Of course, Rodón was not alone in having a tough week. Luis Gil and the bullpen got bludgeoned by the Orioles and the Yankees allowed a run(s) in 13 of 14 innings spanning the tenth inning Wednesday and the fifth inning Friday. That includes allowing at least one run in nine consecutive innings spanning Thursday and Friday, tied for the longest such streak in franchise history. History with an exclamation point:

1. 9 innings: June 20-21, 2024
2. 9 innings: June 16-18, 1940
3. 8 innings: May 2-4, 2009
4. 8 innings: May 27-28, 1934

The Yankees have allowed at least five runs 10 times in their last 20 games after doing it only 14 times in their first 60 games. Offense always increases as the weather warms up and the Yankees have faced some really good offenses, but the pitching staff was performing over its head a bit, especially with runners on base. I mentioned that a few weeks ago. From my June 7th post:

Also, the Yankees have been exceptional with runners on base. They’ve held hitters to .191/.268/.296 (.255 wOBA) with runners on base and .184/.266/.295 (.253 wOBA) with runners in scoring position. They've surrendered 58 home runs and 41 (!) were solo homers, or 71%. The league average is 56%. The team 0.93 HR/9 is eighth lowest in baseball and the home runs the Yankees do give up are mostly one-run jobs. The back-breaking three-run homers have been few and far between.

Since that date, the Yankees are allowing a .267/.347/.445 (.345 wOBA) line with runners on base and a .253/.333/.433 (.333 wOBA) line with runners in scoring position. Nine of 18 homers since that date are solo shots. The Yankees still have really good season numbers with men on base (.277 wOBA) and with limiting multi-run homers (66% solos)! But yeah, they’re coming back to reality. Never fun when it happens.

Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes restored order the last two games and thankfully the offense showed up one of those two days, so it was merely a 2-4 homestand rather than a 1-5 homestand. The Yankees have begun to address the bullpen (more on that in a bit). Now they need Cole to get built up, Rodón to halt his slide, and the 4-9 lineup spots to wake the frig up. Rough homestand. One of the roughest in a while.

Judge’s chase for 100 XBH

Ever since I answered a mailbag question about Judge’s hot streak two weeks ago, I haven’t been able to stop thinking about him possibly getting to 100 extra-base hits. 62 homers? Old news. Give me 100 XBH. It has been done 15 times in history and only six times since 1948, and zero times since 2001. Albert Pujols had 99 XBH in 2004, but no one’s had 100 since 2001. Here are Judge’s totals:

2B: 22
3B: 1
HR: 28

Judge’s 51 XBH hits were five more than second place Shohei Ohtani entering play Monday. The Yankees have played 80 games. Essentially half the season. Double Judge’s totals and we get 44 doubles, two triples, and 56 home runs. That’s 102 XBH. Judge had one triple from 2018-23, so let’s say he won’t triple again this season and call it a 101 XBH pace. Sound good?

You have to figure teams will pitch around Judge once the postseason races heat like they did in 2022. He’s cutting the 100 XBH pace close as it is, and he’ll probably get fewer opportunities to hit as the season progresses. Teams won’t pitch to Judge in important situations no matter who’s hitting behind him. Judge could use another hot streak to pad his XBH total before September.

I’m not gonna check in on Judge’s XBH pace every post, but the Yankees are more or less at the halfway point, so I figured now was a good time to look. Through 80 team games in 2022, Judge had 41 XBH and 29 homers. He finished with 90 XBH and it wasn’t until late July that he went nuclear and 62 became a real possibility. May the same happen again this summer.

The bullpen carousel

It was a rough week for the pitching staff and the Yankees cycled through fresh arms accordingly. They’ve already used 21 different relievers in 2024 (including Jose Trevino), tied for the 12th most in a single season in franchise history. The record is 30 different relievers in 2019. The race is on. Here are the pitching moves over the last week:

Tuesday: Ian Hamilton and Cody Poteet to IL, Clayton Andrews and Anthony Misiewicz called up
Wednesday: Andrews optioned, Cole activated
Thursday: Tim Hill signed, Misiewicz optioned, Andrews DFAed
Friday: Ron Marinaccio optioned, Victor González DFAed, Phil Bickford and Yoendrys Gómez called up
Saturday: Chasen Shreve signed to a minor league contract (per Dan Martin)

I was surprised by the González DFA but I don’t think it was unwarranted. The 3.86 ERA is fine and holding lefties to a .214 wOBA in all of 8.1 innings is great, but the rest is bad: 11.3 K%, 13.4 BB%, 55.1 GB%, 89.3 mph exit velocity. González got ground balls but they are typically well-struck, and all the performance estimators (5.93 FIP, 5.17 xERA, 5.22 DRA) are saying run away. So the Yankees did.

“That was tough because I’ve really enjoyed Vic. I respect him. He’s had some success in the league,” Boone told Blum. “Hard getting him into a good role here, but definitely had some struggles with the strike-throwing and not putting guys away a little bit, and just felt like this was something over the long haul that we’re probably going to have to address.”

The Yankees need to overhaul their relief crew and get more swing-and-miss in the bullpen, and you can’t do that without getting rid of the non-bat-missers in there now. Kudos to the Yankees for pulling the plug on González and not sticking with him just because it was a notable-ish trade and he has a few more years of team control remaining. I’m sure they’ll be able to trade him before his DFA period ends Friday.

Why González over Caleb Ferguson? Well, Ferguson has a 26.3 K% and better under-the-hood numbers. He hasn’t been good but he seems more salvageable than González. Also, I don’t think Ferguson’s roster spot is safe. DFAing González before Ferguson should not be taken as an endorsement of Ferguson. It just means the Yankees aren’t that far down the DFA line yet.

Gómez was terrific Friday. The Yankees brought him up in case their starter exited early again and Rodón obliged. Gómez was fantastic in bullpen-saving long relief: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K on 78 pitches (video). Throw that much in relief and it usually means you’re getting optioned to Triple-A for a fresh arm the next day, but nope. Gómez stuck around. He’s going to get a longer look, apparently. I love it.

“Yeah, that was big,” Boone said about Gómez’s performance (video). “Obviously last few days have been pretty rough just having to lean on the ‘pen and not having a lot of guys available tonight. To have YoGo come in there and throw the ball the way he did was big. Excited for him to go out there and get some run out there for some length and actually really pitch well. Thought he mixed it up really well. Gives you different looks with the cutter, breaking balls, changeups. Commanded his heater pretty well. That’s one of those little things that happens in a game where you’re out of that can maybe help you win a game tomorrow.”

Gómez, my No. 16 prospect, has pitched well in the offense-happy Triple-A International League this year: 3.13 ERA (4.19 FIP) with 28.9 K%. Gómez is one of the 13 best healthy pitchers in the organization right now, no? He can help the Yankees in a relief role and I’m glad they’re keeping him around. Stuff has never been an issue. It’s health. Gómez is healthy now and the Yankees will give him a chance to show what he can do. Friday was Step 1 in earning more trust. He was great.

Boone made it sound like Bickford is more than a fresh arm du jour – “He’s earned the right to get up here and hopefully help us out,” he told Gary Phillips – and he’s already made two appearances, retiring five of the six batters he faced. Bickford had a 2.93 ERA (3.45 FIP) and a 29.9 K% with Triple-A Scranton. He also had close to a 25% whiff rate on his fastball and the Yankees lack fastballs whiffs in the bullpen.

“It’s a funky slot. Up-shoot four-seam from a low slot,” Matt Blake told Phillips. “He’s had pretty good success with his fastball over the last few years. For us right now, he’s a good fit for the ‘pen.”

Not hard to read, “For us right now, he’s a good fit for the ‘pen,” as an acknowledgement the bullpen needs more swing-and-miss. Is Bickford the perfect solution? No. The guy had a 4.84 ERA (4.36 FIP) in over 100 big league innings from 2022-23, but he gives the Yankees what they need more than González and others. Bickford and Gómez are the first wave of bat-missing relievers. I doubt they’ll be the last.

As for Shreve, the Yankees just needed a body in Scranton. Utility men Kevin Smith and Josh VanMeter combined to make three pitching appearances for the RailRiders in the last five days. That can’t continue. The Yankees have had a lot of DFAs and injuries lately and they needed to backfill innings. González is a goner via trade or waivers, Bickford took his spot in the Bronx, and Shreve took Bickford’s spot in Scranton.

Now 33, Shreve had a 1.61 ERA (3.55 FIP) with a 29.6 K% and 47.9 GB% with the Rangers’ Triple-A team before using an opt out earlier this month. Shreve has pitched in the big leagues every year since 2014. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him come through the bullpen revolving door at some point. For now, he’s Triple-A depth. Bickford and Gómez are the new bullpen arms.

Miscellany

Soto is 9-for-40 (.225) in 13 games since the forearm injury. He’s also drawn 17 walks in those 13 games for a .466 OBP, so he’s seeing the ball fine. Seems like Soto is just a tick off with his swing. Maybe this is a mistake given the injury, but I assume he’ll be fine. Soto is allowed to have a slump. The bigger problem is the tomato cans who haven’t pulled their weight the last few weeks (DJ LeMahieu, Alex Verdugo) or all season (Gleyber Torres) … Ben Rice is 5-for-17 (.294) with mostly soft singles one week into his MLB career, but 10 of his 21 plate appearances have come against lefties, including four against Max Fried and Chris Sale. I feel like his at-bats have been good in terms of swinging at the right pitches, but yeah, that’s a tough way to break into the league. The Yankees have a few more lefty starters coming up too. Might be a little before we can really get a read on Rice … Verdugo is down to .236/.272/.379 (84 wRC+) since May 1st and he’s hitting .200/.295/.307 (78 wRC+) against lefties. He has an 80 wRC+ against lefties since 2022. With Stanton hurt, I think the lineup should be:

vs. RHP
1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. RF/DH Juan Soto
3. RF/DH Aaron Judge
4. 1B Ben Rice
5. 2B Gleyber Torres
6. LF Alex Verdugo
7. 3B J.D. Davis
8. C Austin Wells
9. CF Trent Grisham

vs. LHP
1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. DH J.D. Davis
5. 2B Gleyber Torres
6. LF Jahmai Jones
7. 1B Ben Rice
8. C Jose Trevino
9. 3B DJ LeMahieu

I know Grisham has a reverse split, but I don't really want him to watch him hit every single day, and a platoon with Verdugo seems like the best way to use Jones. It's June 25th and the guy has 23 plate appearances. Either get him more involved or replace him and stop playing with a 25-man roster … Boone indicated the plan is to platoon Rice and Davis at first base even though LeMahieu has shown zero life with the bat: 60.8 GB% with his highest chase (32.3%) and swinging strike (7.6%) rates in over a decade. The Yankees have four fly ball pitchers in the rotation and the one ground ball guy is getting grounders at the lowest rate of his career. You can hold your nose and put Davis at third if he hits. Hopefully Davis and Rice hit so much that Boone has no choice but to put both in the lineup simultaneously … And finally, Tommy Kahnle had the most Tommy Kahnle inning possible Sunday: 17 pitches, 17 changeups. Struck out the side too. Seven whiffs on 12 swings! Kahnle’s six last appearances have been scoreless and he’s struck out 14 of the last 37 batters he’s faced, or 37.8%. May it be a sign of things to come.

Injury updates

Stanton (hamstring) received a PRP injection and said he expects to miss four weeks. The All-Star break will limit the games missed to some extent, but yeah, this ain’t good. That’s the way it goes with Stanton. At this point in his career, you have no choice but to live with the injuries to get the production when he’s healthy. That production didn’t come in 2022 or 2023, but it returned this year. Get well soon, Big G … Scott Effross (back, elbow) made his second rehab appearance Sunday: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K on 26 pitches (video). Didn’t expect him to go two innings so early in his rehab, so that’s a good sign. Not sure how much longer the Yankees plan to keep Effross in Tampa. His rehab could be moved up to Double-A or Triple-A pretty soon … JT Brubaker (elbow) made his second rehab start Monday: 4 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HR. The Yankees moved him down to the rookie Florida Complex League so he could start on normal rest (Low-A Tampa was off Monday) and we don’t have FCL pitch data, but figure 40-50 pitches? Sound about right? I have to think Brubaker will make at least two more rehab starts, and probably more like three or four. Effross is a reliever. His return could be relatively quick. Brubaker has some more to go though. So far, so good for the two of them … Jon Berti (calf) played catch and did some light agility drills over the weekend, per Greg Joyce. He can’t come off the 60-day injured list until Thursday, July 25th, but he’s begun baseball activities. The ramp up is underway … Nick Burdi (hip) threw a bullpen Friday and was scheduled to throw another one Monday, he told Phillips. He hopes to begin a rehab assignment sometime before the All-Star break. The Yankees transferred Burdi to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot for Davis, so he’s not eligible to return until Wednesday, July 24th. Burdi has options, so if the Yankees add to the bullpen the next few weeks, they can stash him in Scranton. He doesn’t have to go on the big league roster, necessarily.

Up next

The Queens portion of the 2024 Subway Series. The Yankees and Mets will play two games in Citi Field this week, then two games in the Bronx next month. Is it wrong to say Citi Field is the superior New York ballpark? I don’t think so. The concessions are definitely better. That’s no contest. Anyway, the Yankees go to Toronto after the Mets series. Here are the pitching matchups between now and the next post:

Tuesday at Mets: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. LHP David Peterson (7pm ET on YES, SNY, TBS)
Wednesday at Mets: RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Sean Manaea (7pm ET on Amazon, SNY, MLBN)
Thursday at Blue Jays: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP José Berríos (7pm ET on YES)

The Mets rearranged their rotation last week to keep Luis Severino out of the Yankees series. He started Sunday against the Cubs instead. Mets manager and former Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza said it was a matchups thing. They want Peterson and Manaea to face the Yankees because the Yankees have been much worse against lefties (103 wRC+) than righties (124 wRC+).

“I’m going to make that happen,” Severino told Tim Healey when asked about possibly pitching at Yankee Stadium next month. Judge told Martin: “I’d rather not face him. I’ve seen him a couple times in (live BP) and even in 2020 and ’21, with the lockout, and got a chance to go up against him there. He has great stuff.”

The Mets had the worst record in baseball in May (9-19) and they have the best record in baseball in June (13.-6). The offense has been firing on all cylinders lately (6.00 runs per game this month) and their bullpen has settled down after a rough few weeks, though Edwin Díaz will miss this week’s series after getting busted for sticky stuff Sunday. That comes with an automatic 10-game suspension.

The NL Wild Card race is wide open and the Mets are one of the more talented teams in the race. They’ll always be the little brother, but they are playing well, and these games are important. We’ll focus on the Blue Jays more next time, but yeah, they stink. One of the most disappointing teams in baseball this season.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: More bat-missing relievers. When I looked at possible bullpen targets two weeks ago, it was already clear bullpen help would be a deadline priority. That has only become more obvious over the last two weeks. What an awful, awful stretch for the relief crew. The Yankees have played 80 games, so let’s chop the season in half. Here’s the bullpen:

After DFAing Victor González last week, Aaron Boone told Ron Blum there are “certain things to shake up” in the bullpen without really elaborating. I can tell you – and you already know this – the Yankees have to get more strikeouts in the bullpen. The bullpen’s home run rate has doubled in the last 40 games, which is another problem (especially for a bullpen designed to limit homers). The best way to limit homers is to avoid contact all together and the Yankees aren’t great at that.

We’ll get to corner infield trade possibilities soon, I promise. For now, here’s another batch of relievers who could help the Yankees with their swing-and-miss (and effectiveness) issue.

RHP John Brebbia, White Sox

2024 stats: 5.72 ERA (3.36 FIP), 28.9 K%, 5.0 BB%, 36.4 GB%, 1.27 HR/9 in 28.1 IP
Contract status: $4M in 2024 plus $6M club option for 2025 ($1.5M buyout)

That’s former Yankees prospect John Brebbia. The Yankees took him in the 30th round in 2011, he spent 2012-13 as an organizational reliever in Single-A, then the Yankees released him in Dec. 2013. Brebbia spent 2014 and 2015 in independent leagues before hooking on with the Cardinals. He made his MLB debut with St. Louis in May 2017 and has been a solid medium-to-high leverage option since.

Now 34, Brebbia is a classic 95-and-a-slider reliever (more like 93-and-a-slider these days) who throws roughly 55% sliders. The slider is his best pitch, so he throws it a lot. That has led to plenty of whiffs, but also some home run issues. When he hangs the slider or catches too much of the plate with his heater, it can be hit a long way. Last year’s numbers – 29.2 K% and 1.41 HR/9 – are right in line with this year’s.

The White Sox are awful and they signed Brebbia to a one-year contract specifically so they could flip him for a prospect at the deadline. That club option is only a $4.5M decision because of the buyout, which could come in handy next year. That’s next year though. For 2024, Brebbia fits best as the No. 3 or 4 option in a contender’s bullpen. He had his greatest success in that role with the Cardinals and Giants.

LHP Garrett Crochet, White Sox

2024 stats: 3.25 ERA (2.59 FIP), 35.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.1 GB%, 1.02 HR/9 in 88.2 IP entering Monday
Contract status: $800,000 in 2024 plus arbitration-eligible from 2025-26

Give the White Sox a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they didn’t expect Crochet to pitch this well in his first year as a starter. He’s pitched at close to an ace level. Crochet added a cutter to combat righties, his upper-90s four-seamer and slider are as vicious as ever, and he’s throwing more strikes than he did as a reliever. Look at this nastiness. There’s more to life than Statcast sliders, but sheesh:

Jon Heyman reports the Yankees have interest in Crochet (who doesn’t?) and Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) says the White Sox are “open for business,” and will listen to offers for Crochet. With Jesús Luzardo hurt and others like Tyler Anderson and Cal Quantrill being innings guys more than difference-makers, Crochet figures to be the best starter available at the deadline. He’s not a rental either.

So why do I have Crochet listed here with relievers? His workload. Heading into Monday’s start, he’d already thrown 88.2 innings this year, well above his previous career high (65 as a college sophomore in 2019). Chicago gives him extra rest whenever possible, but the fact of the matter is Crochet is already in uncharted territory with his workload, and it’s only June 25th. Is this guy really gonna be able to start deep into the postseason?

Similar to Luis Gil, you can envision Crochet shifting to the bullpen later this year (a role he is familiar with) and becoming a high-strikeout dominator. Then next year he returns to the rotation and you can continue building him up that way. And if he shows no signs of fatigue and can start through October, great. That would be amazing. More likely, Crochet shifts to the bullpen at some point later this year. That works too.

The ChiSox reportedly wanted Spencer Jones or Chase Hampton for Dylan Cease, and if they want Jones for Crochet (Hampton’s still hurt), can the Yankees really say no to that? Jones is hitting .242/.329/.377 (102 wRC+) with worrisome strikeout (34.5%) and swinging strike (15.6%) rates in Double-A. I think the Yankees would be fortunate if Chicago is willing to take Jones as the headliner for Crochet at this point.

One trade package reference point here is Sonny Gray. The Yankees gave up three of their top 10 prospects (Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo) for 2.5 years of Gray, though Crochet has been better this year than Gray was leading up to the trade in 2017 (plus he's making way less money). That’s the precedent though. You want three postseason runs of my stud starter? Then I need three of your 10 best prospects.

Whatever the trade package is, it will hurt, and it should hurt. Crochet’s injury history (Tommy John surgery in April 2022 plus past shoulder stuff) will be baked into the cake, but the most recent information is a healthy power lefty pitching like an ace. He might only be able to help the Yankees as a reliever in 2024, but he would still be a worthwhile pickup. There’s never a bad time to get guys like Crochet.

RHP Carlos Estévez, Angels

2024 stats: 3.38 ERA (3.06 FIP), 27.8 K%, 3.3 BB%, 25.8 GB%, 1.13 HR/9 in 24 IP
Contract status: $6.75M in 2024

Two years ago Estévez was a “get him out of Coors Field and he could be great” pitcher and that’s more or less what happened. He’s been very good with the Angels and that 3.3% walk rate is even more impressive than it looks on the surface. Estévez has walked three batters in 24 innings this year and two of the three were intentional. Of course, he had an 11.0 BB% in 2023 and 9.8 BB% in 2022, so 2024 is the outlier.

Estévez is a three-pitch reliever – upper-90s four-seamer, upper-80s slider, upper-80s changeup – with a history of strong whiff rates on everything (though not the changeup in 2024). He’s a big dude (6-foot-6 and 277 lbs.) with a little herky-jerkiness in his delivery. Not a comfortable at-bat, I imagine. As a good closer on a bad team, Estévez is the quintessential rental veteran reliever. Can’t imagine he finishes the season with the Angels.

RHP Luis García, Angels

2024 stats: 4.64 ERA (3.51 FIP), 25.4 K%, 8.5 BB%, 49.5 GB%, 0.82 HR/9 in 33 IP
Contract status: $4.25M in 2024

After allowing nine runs in 8.1 innings with the Rangers during the shortened pandemic season in 2020, the Yankees signed García to a minor league contract, reworked his sinker in Triple-A, and revived his career. García used an opt out to join the Cardinals that June and he’s been a steady ground ball presence in the four years since: 3.80 ERA (3.32 FIP) with 23.8 K% and 54.1 GB% in 187 innings. Also a 0.67 HR/9.

Now 37, García is one of those rental relievers the Angels will surely move at the deadline, and he does the things the Yankees want their relievers to do (get ground balls, avoid homers, etc.). There’s also familiarity here. The current pitching regime identified García as a target during the 2020-21 offseason and coached him up. The Yankees liked him at one point. Perhaps that interest lingers? García’s 25.4 K% isn’t amazing but would represent an upgrade for the bullpen.

RHP Tyler Kinley, Rockies

2024 stats: 8.40 ERA (6.38 FIP), 22.1 K%, 13.1 BB%, 28.7 GB%, 2.40 HR/9 in 30 IP
Contract status: $1.3M in 2024, $3M in 2025, $5M club option for 2026 ($750,000 buyout)

Kinley’s numbers are horrible, and they’ve been horrible pretty much his entire career, but he’s been a pitch data sleeper for years. One of those “get him out of Coors Field and he could be great” types like Estévez, though no team has taken the bait and traded for him. The numbers on his stuff aren’t as impressive as they once were, though Kinley still gets some funky weird drop on his fastball and slider. I don’t think the Yankees will trade for Kinley and I assume some smart team would have picked the 33-year-old up already if he really were some hidden gem.

RHP Chris Martin, Red Sox

2024 stats: 3.70 ERA (3.56 FIP), 28.1 K%, 2.1 BB%, 45.2 GB%, 1.48 HR/9 in 24.1 IP
Contract status: $7.5M in 2024

This is indeed former Yankee Chris Martin. The Yankees got him in a cash trade with the Rockies in Jan. 2015, he allowed 13 runs in 20.2 innings as an up/down guy that season, then he played in Japan from 2016-17. Martin figured things out in Japan and returned to MLB with the Rangers in 2018, and he’s been a steady late-inning guy since. Since returning he has 302 strikeouts and 25 unintentional walks in 290.1 innings. If nothing else, Martin won’t beat himself with free passes.

Now 38, Martin has run into home run trouble this year (19.0% HR/FB after 9.8% from 2020-23), though everything else looks good. Strikeouts, walks, average-ish contact quality allowed. Still throws pretty hard too. Mostly mid-90s and up to 97. Martin is a four-seamer, cutter, splitter pitcher who has done very well against lefties over the years. He’s been sneaky good for a while now.

The Alex Verdugo trade shows new Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow is willing to trade with the Yankees, though Verdugo was something of a problem child in Boston, and they wanted to be rid of him. The larger issue is the Red Sox are in the Wild Card race. Would they trade one of their best relievers when a postseason berth is within reach? Common sense would say no, but:

Red Sox ownership has really clamped down on spending and Breslow may not be able to add money at the deadline, in which case he’ll have to send out salary to make upgrades.
With so many teams in the race, there could be an uptick in MLB player for MLB player trades. Good ol’ fashioned baseball trades a la Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader.
Boston has some bullpen depth (Isaiah Campbell and Josh Winckowski were in Triple-A, etc.) and could trade from that depth to improve the roster elsewhere.

The Red Sox need a starting pitcher and a second baseman. The Yankees can’t really spare a starter and rental Gleyber Torres for rental Martin doesn’t make sense. The Yankees would have to come up with a new second baseman and finding one won’t be easy. DJ LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza, and Jorbit Vivas are all having worse years than Torres (the latter two in Triple-A) and Jon Berti can’t stay on the field (and really shouldn't play everyday for a contender).

There will be a robust trade market for Martin if the Red Sox make him available, which is far from certain. We've seen an uptick in Yankees-Red Sox trades in recent years (Verdugo, Adam Ottavino, Stephen Drew, etc.), so we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility out of hand. I admit this one is a longshot. Martin would help the Yankees with their bullpen’s strikeout issues though.

LHP Tanner Scott, Marlins

2024 stats: 1.64 ERA (3.90 FIP), 25.4 K%, 16.7 BB%, 49.3 GB%, 0.55 HR/9 in 33 IP
Contract status: $5.7M in 2024

Scott might be the player most likely to be traded at the deadline and the Yankees have interest in him, so says Heyman. He’s a rental, he’s a lefty who throws hard, and the Marlins are very bad. They’ll trade Scott before July 30th. I’m sure of it. Truth be told, Miami might’ve missed their chance to trade Scott for maximum value over the winter. Spot the outlier:

Scott’s strikeout rate is down quite a bit this year (32.6% from 2022-23) and, in possibly related news, the Marlins have him throwing 60% fastballs and 40% sliders. From 2022-23, it was 43% fastballs and 57% sliders. Not sure what that’s about, though they have a new front office, so they’re probably behind it. Get back to 40/60 fastballs/sliders and the whiffs could return.

The walk rate is very high and no one likes walks in the late innings, but Scott has a long track record of missing bats, getting ground balls, and limiting home runs. He’s also very good against lefties (minus the walks). You can bring Scott into the late innings of a close game against, say, Yordan Alvarez or Rafael Devers or Gunnar Henderson and reasonably expect him to avoid The Big Hit (but he might walk them).

We sat through Aroldis Chapman’s nightly tightrope walk for years and Scott is cut from the same cloth. You’ll never feel comfortable with him because of the walks but he is very good at everything else a pitcher can do. Scott strikes me as the clear cut No. 1 target in terms of fit (misses bats, lefty), availability (he is), and cost (rental). There will be a bidding war, I’m sure of it. Such is life at the deadline.

* * *

DFAing González and adding Phil Bickford and Yoendrys Gómez to the bullpen is the Yankees taking steps to correct the bullpen’s swing-and-miss issue. They’re only baby steps, but they are steps, and I expect them to take bigger steps at the deadline. Crochet would be the ideal pickup short and long-term. Estévez and Scott would be upgrades and worthwhile pickups as well.

3. Prospect thoughts. The first half of the minor league season ended Sunday and none of the four full season affiliates qualified for the postseason. All the full season leagues use the split season format now, so the first half division winner gets one postseason berth and the second half division winner gets the other. Triple-A Scranton was the only affiliate close to the first half division title:

Triple-A Scranton: 43-31 (3 GB)
Double-A Somerset: 32-37 (6.5 GB)
High-A Hudson Valley: 33-32 (6 GB)
Low-A Tampa: 24-42 (19 GB)

Been a rough season for the Tarpons, who are at least competitive offensively. They’re scoring 4.60 runs per game, almost exactly the Florida State League average (4.58). They’re allowing 5.44 runs per game though. The kids are holding their own at the plate. On the mound? Not so much. Here now are a few prospect thoughts.

Checking in on Arias and Lombard

SS Roderick Arias and SS George Lombard Jr., my No. 6 and No. 8 prospects, are both going through it in Low-A this year. Arias is hitting .209/.301/.364 (94 wRC+) with a 36.7 K% and 20.6% swinging strike rate. He has six homers. Lombard is hitting .228/.360/.321 (107 wRC+) with one homer and a 23.6 K%. They’re both only 19, so still very young, but it has been a challenging season.

Because they’re in Low-A, we have Statcast data for both Arias and Lombard, so we can dig a little deeper into their seasons than the surface stats. Here are the SEAGER (what’s this?) and 90th percentile exit velocity numbers for all Low-A hitters with at least 50 balls in play this year (full-size image):

I highlighted SS Enmanuel Tejeda as well because he I had him as a Top 30 Prospect. Tejeda, another 19-year-old, is slashing .325/.379/.397 (125 wRC+) this season, though the underlying data doesn’t love him. Okay-ish approach, meh contact.

Arias is toeing the line with average-ish SEAGER and 90th percentile exit velocity. He’s swinging at the right pitches, though not doing quite as much damage as projected. Arias was said to be a big exit velocity dude in rookie ball. His max exit velocity (107.5 mph) is roughly the same as Lombard’s (107.4 mph), but Lombard has 10 of the 16 hardest hit balls between them in 2024.

Lombard has shown a better approach and more hard-hit ability than Arias despite his lack of homers. He’s running a 45.5 GB% and it was north of 50% much of the year, so Lombard is hitting the ball hard, though it has mostly been on the ground. Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) wrote about Arias vs. Lombard earlier this week and they say Lombard has been the more impressive player.

What separates (Lombard) from Arias for me, is partially the fluidity in his glove—Lombard can pick it, with more polished footwork, though both youngsters have experienced their fair share of blunders thus far. More than that, though, it’s Lombard’s ability to recognize and stick the barrel on spin. Despite making contact in the zone at a similar clip to Arias, Lombard’s strikeout rate is 13 points lower. That’s because Lombard makes twice the amount of contact on all non-fastballs than Arias does, thanks to his polished two-strike approach. I’m not ready to detract from a 19-year-old for letting the ball travel, and Lombard stands out as mature beyond his years. As Lombard gets bigger and stronger, and grown man bat speed introduces some ability to hammer fastballs in the zone, he could grow into an impact infielder yet.

Arias and Lombard have split time at second base and shortstop, which a) is really the only way to get them both time at their natural position and on the field together, and b) not really allowing either to settle into a groove defensively. I can overlook some defensive misplays in Low-A when you’re bouncing between positions. Both have the tools to be good defenders long-term.

Offensively, it’s not a surprise Lombard “stands out as mature beyond his years” while Arias has trouble putting the bat on non-fastballs. That was the book on them coming into the season and it has played out that way. Hopefully they really settle in now that we’re close to three months into the season, and both guys finish 2024 strong. The Yankees could use a few prospect breakouts in the second half.

The other guy in the Bauers trade: OF Brian Sanchez

The Yankees acquired two players in the Jake Bauers trade with the Brewers: OF Jace Avina, who’s having a nice year with High-A Hudson Valley, and Sanchez. Sanchez, 20 next week, is a rookie ball kid hitting .337/.427/.604 (168 wRC+) with three homers and good strikeout (23.9%) and walk (12.8%) rates. His 168 wRC+ is fourth best among teenagers in the minors (min. 100 PA).

Sanchez has been one of the best hitters in rookie ball this year, but like so many young hitters, he is showing good hard-hit ability and less than inspiring contact rates. Geoff Pontes (subs. req’d) examined his game earlier this month:

Under the hood, Sanchez looks like a three-true-outcomes type hitter. Though his contact grades below-average with a 22.7% zone-miss rate, Sanchez doesn’t chase very often with a (22.9%) and has a strong quality of contact … (His) 90th percentile exit velocity (103.8 mph) is well above-average for a 19-year-old. Sanchez’s ability to elevate on hard-hit contact stands out, too, as over 30% of his hard-hit batted ball events fell in the optimal launch angle range of 10-30 degrees. That’s well above to 14% to 16% median range across the minors. In all, Sanchez looks like a bat-first prospect with legitimate power and on-base skills, but concerning contact abilities.

I know the “hits the ball hard, doesn’t make much contact” profile is exhausting, but apparently it's easier to improve contact ability than it is to improve exit velocity. Similar to pitch velocity, at some point you either have exit velocity or you don’t. There’s only so much training you can do to improve it. Contact can be improved through swing and approach adjustments though, so teams are gravitating toward this profile.

Sanchez is about to turn 20 and he’s been tearing the cover off the ball in the Florida Complex League. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him head across the street to Low-A Tampa at some point soon. Neither Avina nor Sanchez is a top prospect, they’re interesting sleepers more than anything, but they are pretty good gets for a non-tender candidate like Bauers. Fingers crossed one of them figures out how to make consistent contact.

Guy having a nice year: RHP Bailey Dees

Dees, an 18th round pick in 2021, owns a 3.86 ERA (4.14 FIP) with solid strikeout (25.9%) and walk (8.4%) rates in 67.2 Double-A innings this year. He is home run prone (1.20 HR/9 and 39.9 GB%), which maybe will improve with time. Dees’ season is notable because he’s doing it as a starter. He was a reliever from 2022-23. The Yankees decided to try him as a starter and he’s faring well.

“I was excited as soon as they asked me (to start). I had started in college all four years, so I had done it in the past. I loved relieving, but I also loved starting in college, so it was just whatever they needed me to do,” Dees told Matt Kardos a few weeks ago. “... I guess just because of how they built me up during spring, things were going well and some of my pitches had improved a little bit. It was something that they came to me with and I just kind of had the attitude of whatever they need, I’m down.”

Dees is a big guy (6-foot-8 and 252 lbs.) and he sits mostly low-to-mid-90s with his two-seamer. He also has a slider, a changeup, and a little baby cutter. Here’s some video. I’m not ready to say Dees, 25, is having a breakout season. He is having a nice year in his first season as a pro starter though, and I want to acknowledge that. Maybe Dees is a late-bloomer and becomes a Guy soon. That would be neat.

Miscellany

OF Spencer Jones did something Sunday he hadn’t done since May 9th: He didn’t strike out. Thirty-eight straight games with a strikeout. You may remember Aaron Judge set the MLB record with a 37-game strikeout streak in 2017. Jones has been much better in June (.284/.359/.457 and 129 wRC+ with 32.6 K%) than he was in April and May (.220/.314/.327 and 86 wRC+ with 34.9 K%), but the season slash line sits at .242/.329/.377 (102 wRC+) with a 34.5 K%. I was hoping Jones would take a big step forward this season and it hasn’t happened yet … RHP Cam Schlittler, who’s having a nice season in High-A (2.32 ERA and 3.96 FIP with 31.7 K% and 56.4 GB%), was bumped up to Triple-A over the weekend to fill Yoendrys Gómez’s rotation spot. It did not go well: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K on 52 pitches. That says more about the state of Scranton’s rotation than it does Schlittler. With Clayton Beeter and Cody Poteet hurt, the Yankees really need to get the RailRiders an innings dude … RHP Luis Serna, my No. 26 prospect, has bounced back nicely after a shoulder injury limited him to 19.1 rookie ball innings in 2023. He has a 4.31 ERA (3.03 FIP) with 28.6 K% and 50.4 GB% in 48 innings as a 19-year-old in Low-A. Serna’s 14.3% swinging strike rate is third highest among teenagers in the minors (min. 40 IP) … And finally, welcome back RHP Carlos Lagrange. My No. 17 prospect made his 2024 debut over the weekend: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K in the Florida Complex League. Lagrange missed the start of the season with an unknown injury and is still on a pitch limit. No word when LHP Henry Lalane, my No. 7 prospect, will make his season debut. He’s out with a shoulder injury.

4. 2024 draft prospect: California HS LHP Boston Batemen. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Bateman, 18, is the best pitcher (0.54 ERA and 52.4 K%) and hitter (.341/.477/.731) on his high school team, though his future lies on the mound. He is a rare lefty thrower and righty hitter, and he was part of four no-hitters this spring. Bateman is a big, big dude. He’s Sabathia-sized: 6-foot-8 and 240 lbs. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have him:

Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 79
ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 48
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 47
MLB Pipeline: No. 49

Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) says Bateman is among the players “mentioned most often at (No. 26) and the next one for the Yankees.” He adds several other teams, including the Padres and White Sox, have interest in Bateman for later picks, so it sounds like he’s more of a second round candidate. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Bateman’s size and his makeup could be separators as the spring unfolds, though his current two-pitch mix is nothing to sneeze at. He’s shown he can touch 97 mph with his fastball and was sitting around 92 mph over the course of his summer showcase tour. He has a pretty true 1-to-7 type of curve, with big spin and depth at the plate. It's already a plus pitch.
The development of a third pitch is a key area of growth for Bateman. Finding a changeup that works will continue to be something he’ll have to focus on at the next level and could make him one of the best high schoolers to come out of this class. He showed improved strike-throwing over the summer and while his walk rate might concern some, he’s largely been around the zone, and there’s belief he’ll keep trending in the right direction as he learns to get his large frame in sync consistently. The LSU recruit gets high marks for his work ethic, adding confidence that he can do what’s needed to excel at the next level.

Not surprisingly, Baseball America (subs. req’d) says “Bateman is still learning to sync up his delivery to throw more strikes.” That is not at all uncommon for tall young pitchers. The Yankees place a premium on makeup, so Bateman is right up their alley in that regard, plus they always need quality lefties in Yankee Stadium. Gotta make it tough on opponents who want to aim for the short porch.

The Yankees have not taken a pitcher in the first round since Clarke Schmidt in 2017 and they’ve taken only one high school pitcher (Brock Selvidge in the 2021 third round) in the top 10 rounds since 2018. Bateman would be an against the grain pick for the Yankees, even in the second round (No. 53). Still, in a draft class this thin, high school arms are more appealing. The college ranks are pretty meh after the top few guys.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Time for the annual Aaron Judge is skipping the Home Run Derby post: Aaron Judge is skipping the Home Run Derby, he told Dan Martin. “I’m not doing it. There’s no need this year … I’m not done with it. Once it’s back in New York, I’ll be there,” Judge said. No surprise here. Judge won the Home Run Derby in 2017 and hasn’t done it since (no Yankee has done it since). The 2025 (Atlanta) and 2026 (Philadelphia) All-Star Game sites have already been selected, so the earliest it can return to New York is 2027. It’ll probably be later than that though. The Cubs haven’t hosted the All-Star Game since 1990 and figure to get one soon. The Blue Jays haven’t hosted since 1991 and the Rogers Centre renovations are complete. Eventually the new ballparks in Las Vegas and Tampa will join the queue. The All-Star Game might not return to New York until the 2030s, when Judge will either be approaching 40 or in his 40s. Unless Juan Soto does it, there won’t be a Yankee in the Home Run Derby yet again this year. Judge is out and Giancarlo Stanton’s hurt. It is what it is … And finally, MLB released the second All-Star Game voting update Monday. Judge and Soto are 1-2 among all players in votes by a lot. If Judge finishes as the AL’s leading vote-getter, he’ll skip Phase 2 and get an automatic starting spot. Stanton is the only other Yankee in position to advance to Phase 2 of the voting, though his injury means he won’t play in the All-Star Game even if he gets voted in. Phase 1 ends Thursday.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)