【突發時空】兩韓中印邊境突變：RISK國際棋局重臨
Added 2020-06-16 13:11:01 +0000 UTC
我們習慣的國際新聞，通常都是罐頭式、piecemeal清單：左上角美國示威，右下角亞馬遜森林大火，下方有法國政客性派對醜聞，以為這樣就一天。
但對傳統大國博弈而言，通常習慣把一籃子貌似互不相干的棋子，放在一起，討價還價。只是局中人，卻往往不知道。
今天忽然出現兩大震撼國際新聞。北韓炸毀兩韓聯絡處，日前金正恩妹妹金正與聲稱是時候與南韓「一刀兩斷」；中印邊境爆發衝突，雙方互有士兵死亡，這是罕見致死的擦槍走火。
不少外交評論認為，這是中美兩國楊潔篪、Pompeo會面前，各自增加籌碼的表現。美國自從制定「印太」戰略，就是要印度、澳洲、日本、越南等圍堵中國，但能在陸地牽制解放軍，唯有印度。而無論北京對北韓的剩餘影響力還有多少，金家也不會不明白自己在新冷戰的價值，關鍵時刻製造緊張，從來是brinksmanship。
至於中美雙方的其他籌碼，還有南海問題、台海問題、貿易戰、科技戰、金融戰......，香港國安法也是其一，卻也只是其一。究竟這些棋子之間哪些是暗子、哪些是棄子，局外人、局中人，誰也不知道。
冷戰時代，各大玩家正是這樣操作的。例如古巴導彈危機，蘇聯答應美國撤回古巴導彈，其實換取了美國遠在天邊的讓步：撤回北約駐土耳其、意大利的導彈，只是當時沒有對世界公開，甘迺迪才能宣傳是自己的勝利。古巴人對此，當時一無所知。
又如金門炮戰，毛澤東聲稱導火線是要「支援中東第三世界弟兄」，因為當時伊拉克發生革命、推翻親美王室、退出親西方聯盟，倒向親社會主義陣營，令美國、英國分別出兵附庸國黎巴嫩、約旦，中東醞釀大戰。中國就說，出兵金門能「以實際行動牽制美國」云云。但相信住在金門的人，毫無這樣的感覺。
究竟作為棋子，如何maximize自己的價值？或最低程度上，如何自保？
Comments
記得回到未來其中一集講笑咁提起過「印度拯救論」。Maybe it’s not a joke lol. After all, nothing is impossible😹
Kaylie
2020-06-19 01:22:36 +0000 UTCPLA can't defeat the Indians with ease, according to most reports today
Simon Shen
2020-06-18 17:36:42 +0000 UTCRead from Reuters that India is actually a larger purchaser of Russian armaments than China, and that Russia has stated her support for India🤯
Kaylie
2020-06-17 23:58:56 +0000 UTCalso Thailand....
EL
2020-06-17 04:37:11 +0000 UTCVietnam, sooner or later
Simon Shen
2020-06-17 04:15:33 +0000 UTC邊境衝突容易抽身 中國不立國安法，基本上騎虎難下不可能
Simon Shen
2020-06-17 04:15:20 +0000 UTCIf the Northern side (Russia) / South-Western side (Lao/Vietnam) are also having issues..................
EL
2020-06-17 02:25:52 +0000 UTC如果係後加嘅籌碼，即係可以抽返起扮有退讓，咁係咪更反映香港係真戰場，大家都無得抽只可來硬呢？
Arthur Chan
2020-06-16 23:42:24 +0000 UTC所以雙方都唔希望真打、但玩緊鬥大膽睇邊個正衰仔？
Blue
2020-06-16 18:15:21 +0000 UTCthere're occasional border conflicts though
Simon Shen
2020-06-16 15:14:33 +0000 UTCIndian border is not supposed to have it escalated now, weird timing
Simon Shen
2020-06-16 15:14:02 +0000 UTCKashmir just lost its autonomy not long ago and now under New Delhi’s direct rule. Now, we see a rare lethal conflicts between two nuclear countries. Coincidence ?
Jeff
2020-06-16 15:07:16 +0000 UTCIt wasn’t the first time with China and India having territorial disputes along Himalayas, but it was rare and tragic to see casualties, perhaps it was an escalation to the capture of a Chinese solider last week. I am a bit surprised with the speed of escalating tension between DPRK and South Korea though, and even more surprising was that the majority of rhetorics came from Kim’s sister. The key is with all these chaos occurring concurrently, who are exploiting the tension behind the scenes? Who gets to benefit from it? What a time to be alive!
Jon T
2020-06-16 14:50:28 +0000 UTC難怪印中前線指揮官急急談判以免擦槍走火
Garlic Malay
2020-06-16 13:38:52 +0000 UTC
