【讀者分享🇸🇬🇭🇰】 中共用新加坡取代香港，不是那麼簡單的

去年十月金融時報專題報導「Can Singapore hold on to itsreputation as Asia's'safe haven'？」，內容提及 「One Washington-based policymaker tells the Financial Times that the Biden administration is "watching more closely than ever before" the Chinese companies and people moving to Singapore. "The more the volumes of money and people that come in, the more Beijing might start to feel it can intervene in Singaporean affairs，" they say.」既然美國拜登政府已經注視新加坡情況，為何美國會以新加坡吸引中國資金作為壓止中共擴張的陰謀論會成立？陰謀論更提及新加坡取得美國首肯而與中國互發免簽證，這項報導的消息來源未詳。資金選擇新加坡是安全原因，不需要美國刻意引導。陰謀論的一些重點無法解釋。當然既然陰謀論就有其說法，甚至不需要證據支持論點，但當中一些重點自相矛盾，無法自圓其說。

借轉 🙏

堅離地書院 College

幕後操盤手由最初大題目的中國，轉移到陰謀論論述的美國。操盤手說詞，可謂各自精彩。然而，兩種說詞忽視資金的能動性和方向性，也就最終忽視金融市場的基本原理。其實，即使今天習下台換人，美國對中國的金融、高科技和人員交流管制也不會放鬆，因為西方不信任的是中共整個制度，美國不會把自己國運交給中共。fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

Given how far growing tensions between mainland China and the West have arisen and how poor the global confidence in the present Chinese economy has plunged, I come up with a conspiracy theory suggesting that Singapore's role as a new financial gateway for mainland China be part of the US containment strategy. The intention would be to drain the Chinese economy by facilitating massive capital outflows, further stifling the possibility of recovery for the world's second-largest economy in a rough patch. Furthermore, this window could not only lure the wealth of individuals but also entice the capital of the Chairman and the members of his inner circle, through Singapore-based companies owned by mainland proxies, seeking investment opportunities as the prospects in mainland China seem less promising. This would provide the West, particularly the US, with increased bargaining power by potentially seizing key people’s accumulated overseas assets in the event of all-out military conflicts. More importantly, there is a common view among American political circles that serious disturbances caused by total chaos throughout mainland China or even the sudden collapse of its regime due to the freefall of the economy is not in the interests of the US. On the contrary, the steady decline of the CCP's economic power in global affairs, driven by a set of unsolvable—at least in the near term—political and economic problems, provides the west a time window to promptly shift the pivot of the previous economic imbalance through de-risking and rapid divestment. Years ago, the challenge for the Chinese leadership was how to address structural issues of its own making without relinquishing its monopoly on power and its control of private enterprises. This self-contradictory question was seen as a dead end as all normal business activities were stifled by the encumbrance of various national security concerns. Today, the dilemma of enticing western capital to re-pivot toward China's markets amid economic woes and political repression is a burning issue for the CCP. Chinese leaders are now desperate to find a way out of the potential social instability that risks their survival before the country becomes trapped in a vicious cycle. Economic recovery must be carefully weighed against all possible or conceivable threats posed to the regime by “foreign forces.” Strategic concessions, as a result, could involve the jettisoning of geopolitical aggressiveness, transparent economic policy, and concrete actions on economic reforms, potentially serving as a quid pro quo. Worse yet for the CCP, the decline of its sharp power is happening at a time when the US economy keeps firing on all cylinders. The US is more inclined to take a longer process to tame the paper tiger on full alert by leveraging its political and economic prowess, than resorting to killing it at a great, unpredictable cost. This would align more with the interests of the West. Perhaps this is a major reason why the US has given the green light for Singapore putting in place a mutual visa exemption policy with mainland China. Singapore is certainly no substitute for HK in terms of facilitating the CCP’s ambitious agendas, which were flagrantly carried out in HK and the West during the period of fascination with a claw-concealed panda, including economic, industrial and military espionage, political infiltration, and information warfare. By designating a naturalized Chinese businessman as a politically significant person at the time of granting a visa-free agreement, it can be seen as a warning shot to the CCP, signaling that it should not attempt to play the old trick again. It would be naive for the CCP to pin all hopes on an unwavering position of a financial gateway amid the decoupling circumstances. Even under the premise of the CCP’s willingness not to pose any threats to Singapore's national interests, the decision regarding the sustainability of this unique position rests with the US. Choosing Singapore as a viable alternative is more likely a matter of expediency, as no one in the party can find any panacea for reviving the tottering economy within the playbook of great rejuvenation.

George

我想不是取代問題，而是香港已經爛了，外資唔黎玩啦，咁退而求其次，西方對大陸仲有興趣嘅資金會唔會可以改去新加坡呢？美帝又會唔會畀新加坡做大陸嘅抖氣口呢？自己個賭場衰咗，要繼續玩落去，唯有出公海啦

GBK