【會員獨家影片：Simon會客室・國情咨文 073 📖】 蕭少滔：除了比較「當代崇禎」，為甚麼我們必須讀懂漢學家 Timothy Brook 分析明亡著作《價崩》？
Added 2024-06-17 05:01:01 +0000 UTC今後會員區內部的《國情咨文》，會繼續不定期邀請投資銀行家蕭少滔先生交流，專注於更多非時事性、但對現實可能有更深刻啟示的知識分享，例如這次介紹漢學家 Timothy Brook 通過經濟學角度分析中國明朝覆亡的著作《價崩》。
Timothy Brook 發現，明亡之前的全球氣候變化，導致國家控制物價的能力崩潰，這才是亡國的主因。蕭少滔對此進行了深入解讀，提及明代官僚主義怎樣加速這個崩潰過程，而這一切都在崇禎帝的年代全面失控。今時今日的中國，又有沒有「當代崇禎皇帝」？面對的困局，又有何異同？
YouTube Member Zone: https://youtu.be/hq0dsbRpN9A
Comments
Agreed. Below are my shallow viewpoints on this economic concept. Equilibrium is a widely used assumption in economic theory, providing a simplified framework to understand various phenomena while “legitimately” neglecting various small noises that occur prior to reaching the equilibrium state. It allows economists to model behavior under consistent assumptions, sometimes with closed-form solutions, making the analysis more tractable and thus more appealing to journal editors. In fact, contemporary economics is increasingly empirical, aiming to approach economic studies more scientifically. Many economists are eager to build models that can fit to observed data patterns, and using equilibrium models provides a transparent way to highlight—or “rigorously” spell out—priori theoretical mechanisms. Another motivation, I think, is that developing a sexy equilibrium model that can well explain a phenomenon has a higher chance to get accepted for publication on top journals. In addition, equilibrium can approximate real-world outcomes as time averages of beliefs and actions. The assumption of equilibrium also enables the consideration of interdependencies and general equilibrium effects, where variables are determined endogenously within the model. This allows for “capturing” non-trivial interdependencies known as “general equilibrium effects.” However, despite its advantages, equilibrium has two main shortcomings. First, the real world rarely precisely conforms to equilibrium, limiting the accuracy of quantitative models that rely on strict equilibrium assumptions. Second, solving for equilibrium can be technically challenging and may hinder the inclusion of realistic assumptions and full heterogeneity. These limitations restrict the incorporation of insights from behavioral economics—a concept deviating from the traditional assumption of perfect rationality in equilibrium models—and impede the development of comprehensive quantitative models. Therefore, while equilibrium can be useful for qualitative reasoning, it presents obstacles for quantitative analysis. Many equilibrium models provide valuable approaches to understanding theoretical aspects under certain—sometimes unrealistic—assumptions, but they hold less importance in practical applications. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) serves as a good example, as it is less commonly used for asset pricing in the finance industry compared to no-arbitrage pricing.
George
2024-06-25 04:33:15 +0000 UTC氣候、疾病、經濟、飲食等等改變歷史進程，近年是西方學界主流，在中國大陸也比較流行，因為可以避免直接觸及敏感問題
堅離地書院 College
2024-06-20 07:19:17 +0000 UTC因為《萬曆十五年》？
Ken Wong
2024-06-20 01:47:25 +0000 UTC他自己的故事更有趣
堅離地書院 College
2024-06-19 20:42:03 +0000 UTC世界/中國歷史經濟結合嘅書，我推薦「李录談現代化」。https://www.himcap.com/cn/publications
lyk
2024-06-19 02:19:19 +0000 UTChttps://open.acast.com/public/streams/6659828960e2ce00123eb611/episodes/666ffef2d68641f6874dde58.mp3 SimonPatreon Team
堅離地書院 College
2024-06-18 09:55:37 +0000 UTC你好， 我們每天都會整合當天的影片，轉為聲音檔，閣下可以經由以下連結收聽。
堅離地書院 College
2024-06-18 09:55:21 +0000 UTC叫魂這裏也介紹過
堅離地書院 College
2024-06-18 09:54:43 +0000 UTC有時係patreon如果係notification或者其他patreon post的link度㩒入去唔知點解show唔到個video。另一種方法係先去堅尼地patreon主頁，再scroll落去個post度㩒返。
cas idit
2024-06-18 06:29:25 +0000 UTC基本上就係宜家好流行的「數位人文」科。而用上述的科學、AI甚至模擬的方法，可以補足到歷史唔夠史料和Data的問題，令歷史重構得更完整，而且可以搵到人留意唔到的pattern。 不過again呢種係（社會）科學的方法去研究歷史，不同於有其史觀如錢穆等歷史學家的一啲做歷史的方法，詳見趙博之前的堅尼地course。 題外話，經濟學傳統上都以趨向平衡的數學模型( equilibrium model)用，但上述Peter Turchin經濟cycle的例子，就正正反映左社會經濟一般in general都係out of equilibrium systems 。可以check下新書 Making sense of chaos, A better economics for a better world by Doyne Farmer affiliated to Oxford U, Santa Fe, etc https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/284357/making-sense-of-chaos-by-farmer-j-doyne/9780241201978
cas idit
2024-06-18 06:24:40 +0000 UTC咁搞笑？ 我重一直以為秦漢唐宋元明清滅亡原因係一樣添
HO Wong
2024-06-18 03:01:47 +0000 UTC謝謝蕭少滔先生的推介書和如何理解, 接觸不同角度分析, 觀點和見解來豐富思維看歷史事件, 比較立體還原真相或加強想像推敲一些因素的可能導向影響, 以古鑑今 ...
Elaine Yip
2024-06-17 22:14:31 +0000 UTCThank you for your interesting sharing. There’s also an article in MIT Technology Review - April 2023 (https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/04/11/1071104/ai-helping-historians-analyze-past/amp/) which discusses how AI is being utilized by historians to gain a deeper understanding of the past. It highlights the challenges historians face in analyzing vast amounts of historical data and documents, which have been increasingly digitized in recent years. Historians are employing AI techniques, particularly machine learning and deep neural networks, to extract valuable insights from historical documents. By leveraging computational tools, historians can uncover hidden patterns, connections, and relationships within extensive collections of texts. For instance, network analysis software has been instrumental in reconstructing relationships among individuals mentioned in historical documents, unveiling previously unknown influences and contributions. The article also discusses the application of AI in the study of digitized collections of astronomy textbooks. Through the use of machine learning algorithms, text parts, scientific illustrations, and numerical tables within these books can be analyzed, enabling researchers to trace the evolution of knowledge and identify patterns across different texts. Nevertheless, the use of AI in historical analysis comes with its own challenges. Historical texts often present difficulties in terms of variations in typefaces, regional language dialects, and degraded visual elements. It’s worth noting that machines untrained in historical languages and objects (or lack of a large set of historical data in good quality for training) often struggle to recognize. These factors can greatly hinder the effectiveness of natural language processing and computer vision algorithms. Researchers have to manually extract and connect relevant data. Also, deep learning models need to be trained on historical images that differ from contemporary datasets. Despite these challenges, AI tools have provided historians with valuable insights and perspectives that were previously inaccessible. They help researchers uncover new connections, rectify distortions, and analyze historical data on a larger scale and save them a great amount of time to obtain desired outcomes.
George
2024-06-17 21:40:32 +0000 UTC比較著名的例子如Peter Turchin的書和研究，講出歷史歷來的經濟cycle, 也講出動亂人口的cycle等，都可以以數學模型去描述
cas idit
2024-06-17 18:33:05 +0000 UTC宜家外國確實開始流行“Big History" , 用social science和complexity science，結合科學的方法去研究歷史。可以撈埋生物演化學，地質學，氣候學，動力系統，心理學，社會學等方法去研究。有興趣可以睇下Santa Fe Institute 出版的"History, Big History, Meta History"呢本書入面的文章，幾精彩。入面啲文章其實都係open access的論文，google下就搵到。 https://www.sfipress.org/books/history-big-history-metahistory
cas idit
2024-06-17 18:30:29 +0000 UTC明朝瓜柴其實都好多因素 例如冇提過既兵制
Good Year
2024-06-17 15:53:29 +0000 UTC正
Good Year
2024-06-17 15:43:41 +0000 UTC成日記錯小冰河時期導致大明覆亡係出自黃仁宇。
Tai-bo Cheung 張大寶
2024-06-17 12:05:01 +0000 UTC名師出高徒
George
2024-06-17 09:00:02 +0000 UTC請問點係Patreon 聽到呢個video
Justin David
2024-06-17 08:34:06 +0000 UTC正在閱讀這本書。國外的漢學家經常能從另一精湛的新角度研究歷史，例如孔飛力的「叫魂」，藍詩玲的「鴉片戰爭」等，皆能跳出傳統中國史學家的觀點，傳統研究往往把一個皇朝的興衰歸因為外戚、女人、宦官、外族、貪腐入侵等的傳統論述。
Alan AY
2024-06-17 08:20:37 +0000 UTC
