【讀者分享 🇺🇸】 我為何對特朗普2.0任期充滿憂慮（上）

【按：我們早前分享過一位會員就「為甚麼支持特朗普」撰寫的五千字長文，引起不少討論。這次我們邀請了另一位觀點相反的會員，分享他為甚麼對特朗普2.0任期充滿憂慮，他也很有心的用英文撰寫了三千字長文，現分兩日分享如下。希望大家珍惜和而不同的討論空間，繼續給予建設性回應，讓我們可以繼續互相交流切磋。】

Why Am I Concerned About Trump 2.0?

I will review some of the events of T1 (Trump 1.0) and foresee similar events in T2 (Trump 2.0). The contrast between them highlights my concerns. First, let’s examine Trump’s personal character, which offers significant clues to his behavior.

Character Matters

I have witnessed seven Presidents (four Republicans and three Democrats) during my 42 years in the United States. All of them respected the rule of law derived from the Constitution— except one.

T1 was not immediately alarming, even though everyone knew Trump was narcissistic, misogynistic, brazen, banal, and chauvinistic (sympathetic to white supremacists). During T1, I trusted the separation of powers in the U.S. government. However, my confidence in this system is diminished for T2.

In 2023, a Vanity Fair interview with Donald Trump’s late first wife, Ivana Trump, resurfaced, in which she alleged that her former spouse kept a copy of Adolf Hitler's manifesto Mein Kampf in his bedside cabinet.

In October 2024, retired four-star General John Kelly, who served as one of Trump’s White House Chiefs of Staff during T1, told The New York Times that Trump would rule like a fascist if reelected. Kelly also spoke to The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, for an article quoting T1 as once saying, "I need the kind of generals that Hitler had."

During campaign rallies, T2 frequently refers to his political opponents as "vermin" and claims illegal immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country." Such rhetoric echoes Hitler's.

I personally believe T2 is planning and copying strategies to remove all the government guardrails, just like Hitler. This is not just concerning—it’s horrifying. The January 6 riot, or insurrection, was another chilling echo of Hitler, demonstrating that T1 was capable of inciting mob violence.

T1 never released his tax returns despite promising to do so after an IRS audit, and no one pressed T2 about it. Both T1 and T2 ignored releasing their health reports. While not legally required, all six other Presidents in my time publicly released both their tax returns and health reports.

Comparing the Separation of Powers in T1 and T2

·       T1 Senate Majority: Republican, 52 to 48 seats

·       T2 Senate Majority: Republican, 53 to 47 seats

·       T1 House Majority: Republican, 241 to 194

·       T1 Midterm House Majority: Democrat, 235 to 199

·       T2 House Majority: Republican, 218 to 212 (still counting, but Republicans control)

Both T1 and T2 appear to have government trifectas, granting Trump significant power as President.

Traditional conservative Republicans still existed during T1.

The impeachment of T1 on Article 1 (incitement of insurrection) passed in the House by a vote of 232 to 197, with 10 Republican votes. However, the Senate acquitted T1, with a vote of 57 to 43, falling short of the two-thirds majority needed. Notably, 7 Republican Senators voted to convict. Mitch McConnell had the ability to secure 9 more Senate votes, which would have led to Trump’s political career ending. However, he lacked the will to act.

GOP in T2

In the T2 House, regular conservative Republicans are almost nonexistent. Perhaps 2–3 traditional conservative Republican Senators remain who dare to raise their voices against Trump. The rest are MAGA congressmembers, showing 100% loyalty to T2. Without T2’s blessing, these MAGA congressmembers risk losing their re-election bids.

T2 now enjoys a rubber-stamp Congress with no guardrails to check his power. The only hope lies in the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats could retake the House due to the slim Republican margin. I estimate the final count will be 220 to 215. House Speaker Mike Johnson will have limited room to maneuver and will function as T2’s puppet.

The MAGA Supreme Court Emboldens T2

T2 has control of a 6-3 MAGA Supreme Court. In July 2024, the Supreme Court ruled that a President is immune from prosecution when exercising the "core powers" of the presidency. Presidential immunity means that T2 cannot be prosecuted for such actions.

Since T2 cannot seek re-election due to term limits, he has no need to worry about voter sentiment regarding his behavior. Hypothetically, if T2 were to commit a criminal act—such as shooting a protestor in front of the White House—he could escape prosecution under this ruling.

In May 2022, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper alleged in his memoir that T1, during the protests following George Floyd’s death, said: "Can’t you just shoot them? Just shoot them in the legs or something?" Esper reportedly worked to de-escalate Trump’s demand without causing a larger crisis.

If similar protests were to arise in T2’s term, he might act even more unhinged, potentially directing Peter Hegseth to order Marine guards to shoot protestors’ legs.

Morality of Politicians: Guardrails Down the Drain

U.S. Federal Politicians and Sex Scandals (1980–Present)

Focusing on the last 42 years, 47 Republican and 21 Democrat federal politicians have been accused of sex scandals. In nearly all cases, these politicians either resigned, apologized, or lost their next election.

One notable exception is Donald Trump, who became the 45th President despite numerous allegations. He is the only federal politician to be charged and found liable in a sex scandal—in the E. Jean Carroll civil case.

T2’s Attempt to Crush the “Sex Scandal Curse”

T2 seeks to defy the historical consequences of sex scandals by nominating Matt Gaetz as Attorney General and Peter Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, both of whom have faced accusations involving known female victims. Unlike their predecessors involved in such scandals, neither Gaetz nor Hegseth has shown any shame or intent to resign.

If T2 manages to install both men into cabinet positions—through means like abusing recess appointments—the moral standards for U.S. politicians will reach a new low. The argument by 沈旭暉, 始終在法律層面，他們都沒有被定罪 which focuses purely on the legal perspective (that neither Gaetz nor Hegseth has been convicted), dismisses the decades-old norm in U.S. politics: a mere accusation in a sex scandal without conviction has traditionally ended careers. T2 is working to dismantle this critical guardrail to fill Congress and the White House with individuals lacking moral decency. If T2 succeeds, Gaetz and Hegseth will likely be confirmed, further eroding the ethical expectations for public office.

Weaponizing the DOJ for Retribution

T2’s primary motivation for nominating the unqualified but unquestionably loyal Matt Gaetz as Attorney General is to weaponize the Department of Justice (DOJ). T2 has openly called for the criminal prosecution of at least 16 rival politicians, 15 law enforcement, military, and intelligence officials, as well as workers at two federal public health agencies, two billionaires, and tech giant Google.

Among his targets are sitting and former members of Congress involved in investigating the January 6 Capitol attack, including Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R- Wyo.), whom he accuses of “lies” and “treason.” T2 has also vowed to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate President Biden and his family.

Special Counsel Jack Smith, appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland, would likely be dismissed under T2’s leadership, further consolidating T2’s control over the DOJ.

The Most Dangerous Game: Weaponizing the Department of Defense

T2’s plans for the Department of Defense are even more alarming. He aims to establish a "warrior board" led by his handpicked Defense Secretary, Fox News host Peter Hegseth, to purge the military of three- and four-star generals. These high-ranking officers would be replaced with junior officers whom T2 deems loyal to him, creating a "MAGA Army."

The critical foundation of a democracy is a military that upholds the Constitution, not loyalty to a single individual. A military loyal solely to T2 would resemble the authoritarian control seen under Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping.

If T2 succeeds in consolidating control over the military, the consequences could include:

·       Rounding up undocumented immigrants and placing them in detention camps.

·       Arresting political enemies in acts of personal retribution.

Given the Supreme Court’s 2024 decision granting immunity to Presidents for actions taken while exercising "core powers," T2 would remain shielded from prosecution even after leaving office.

This scenario represents the gravest threat to American democracy, as it undermines both institutional and constitutional protections.

Security Clearance Violations and Transition Ethics Ignored

Background Checks and Security Clearances for Cabinet Members & White House Staff T2 has shown disregard for the standard FBI background checks required for controversial cabinet nominees, which typically take 6–18 months. Instead, T2 proposes using private investigation firms to complete these checks within days. Furthermore, T2 plans to bypass

Senate confirmation hearings by exploiting recess appointments to temporarily fill key positions, bypassing another critical norm.

Why does this matter? Consider Matt Gaetz as an example. Accused of involvement in a sex scandal, Gaetz has refused to resign, much like many other scandal-plagued politicians. Under T2’s approach, FBI investigations would be avoided, allowing an individual with questionable ethics to become Attorney General. This would result in an attorney general loyal only to T2, serving his personal interests rather than protecting the American people.

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