Will the Trump Verdict Matter?
Added 2024-06-04 22:46:39 +0000 UTCMatt and Sam break down the Trump guilty verdict—what happened during the trial, why the jury might have reached the decision they did, how Republicans and the right reacted, and the ways it all could matter, or not, for the 2024 presidential election. It's a wide-ranging conversation, including discussions of low-trust voters, educational polarization, how everything in the United States has become a scam, our doubts about Biden, and more!
Sources:
Trailer for Mitch McCabe's documentary, 23 Mile (YouTube)
Eric Levitz, "One explanation for the 2024 election’s biggest mystery," Vox, May 28, 2024
Michael Brenes, "How Liberalism Betrayed the Enlightenment and Lost Its Soul," Jacobin, May 31, 2024
Matthew Sitman, "Will Be Wild," Dissent, April 18, 2023
Timothy Snyder, "Not a Normal Election," Commonweal, Nov 2, 2020
Comments
Thanks, Matt and Sam. Among other pleasures of this episode, it's nice to hear you let loose on some people. I liked how you talked about jurors and civic-mindedness. Trump has always struck me as uniquely uncivic-minded. Is there a way for you to talk about voters similarly? Conspriacy-minded conservatives who don't live in New York can tell themselves the jury was biased. How do they rationalize the 80 million people living among them who voted for Biden in 2020, and how do they rationalize that the 2016 election was just as close as the 2020 election?
David Gillman
2024-06-21 18:16:03 +0000 UTCGood riddance?
Axel Herrera
2024-06-16 15:21:17 +0000 UTCunsubscribe.
Ohidowa64
2024-06-14 04:28:25 +0000 UTCCalling Sigmund Freud a "great-souled person" is exactly how you got me to unsubsidi
Ohidowa64
2024-06-14 04:27:47 +0000 UTCI was asking seriously. I really appreciate Biden getting us out of the war in Afghanistan. I agree with the three senators who opposed the offensive aid to Israel in the foreign aid bill. It’s not obvious that Biden can do war crimes in wars the US isn’t fighting.
Jay James
2024-06-10 22:42:13 +0000 UTCDude, are you serious? Financing and writing a check for the genocide of Palestinians makes Biden either complicit or an active participant. That's why we call him a war criminal. Its not hard. Pretty much every single president in US history has been one.
Garett Smith
2024-06-10 15:19:32 +0000 UTCNot directly related to this episode, but there was an excellent article by Mark Lilla in the NYRB about KYE favorites Deneen, Amari, and post-liberal Catholicism and its vision for a reactionary alternative to the liberal order. It might be fodder for another episode about the anti-libertarian “new right” and their overlap with the left. In terms of “knowing your enemy”, I feel like I understand the libertarian, individual freedom-obsessed Trump-supporters well enough. I have a harder time cracking the nut of the “capitalism is bad, but so are LGBT rights” so-called “MAGA communist” types.
Axel Herrera
2024-06-09 19:49:21 +0000 UTCExcellent discussion. I know you guys joke that you dislike doing punditry but your takes are usually really well informed an nuanced. I feel like all these right-wing pundits arguing that the trial was partisam are just projecting? I'm surprised that neither of you mentioned it here. I mean, the right has long known that the legal system is political, it's just that now their guy is a target... Be that as it may, it still seems bonkers that they believe a state court was somehow puppeted by the Biden administration.
Alex
2024-06-08 16:45:01 +0000 UTCI should add that I will not regard anyone as being 'morally culpable' for future disasters if they are not 'zealous' in supporting Biden.
David B Hearne
2024-06-08 14:16:27 +0000 UTCI think that everything you said is true, I would counter that the Afghan withdrawal was originally negotiated by Trump (who is also, ostensibly, responsible for the current situation in gaza). I guess if I had to pin down my critique, it would be that the price of American economic and civic prosperity should not be paid by the projection of American imperial might.
Leonardo Restrepo
2024-06-08 01:49:57 +0000 UTCBiden: - Withdrew from Afghanistan - Oversaw post-covid economic recovery that outpaces all peer nations - Delivered on a full employment economy, - While US workers experienced a 2.8% increase in real wages over the past four years, workers in other G7 economies faced stagnant or negative wage growth https://x.com/arindube/status/1755568054501609646 - "for the last few quarters, real wages have been growing. In fact, they’ve grown so much for the poorest workers that several key measures of inequality are falling, and the Black-white wage gap is shrinking" - Feb 2024, https://www.theringer.com/2024/2/23/24080532/real-wages-growth-u-s-economy - Miraculously delivered the IRA, which puts the US on track to meet emission goals (Meeting his own pledge to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030) - First woman VP, first black woman VP - First black woman appointed to the Supreme Court - Has made repeated, committed efforts to forgive student loan debt and has in fact forgiven a quite large amount in spite of the obstacles and obstruction - Oversaw the first year of US *decreasing* its emissions - Masterfully navigated and responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine Trump: - Passed massive tax cuts for the wealthy and wants to do it again - Barely failed to roll back Obamacare solely because John McCain had a moment of decency - Literally attempted to ban muslims from entering the US and ultimately basically did after rewording it slightly - Attempted to steal the 2020 election through antidemocratic means - Effectively ended the 200+ year norm of peaceful transfer of power, encouraged supporters to riot and storm the f*cking capital, resulting in multiple deaths and could have easily been more - Encouraged supporters to execute. his. vice. president. - Found civilly liable of rape - Found criminally liable of election interference, is a felon - Trump org found guilty for a 15 year criminal tax fraud scheme - Grabs women "by the p—" - “but, I mean, would America buy a n— winning?” https://slate.com/culture/2024/05/donald-trump-news-2024-trial-verdict-apprentice.html - Has pledged to set the crush the pro-palestine movement and set it back "25-30 years" https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/27/trump-donors-israel-gaza-palestinian-protests - Pulled out of the Iran deal - Appointed three extremely conservative supreme court justices, many more federal court appointees, culminating in the overturning of Roe v Wade - Set fire to US China relations - More or less individually responsible for the dire conditions in Gaza that led to Oct 7 https://www.unpopularfront.news/p/trump-did-october-7th - Will be more than happy to do whatever he can to roll back domestic progress on the clean energy transition and rejuvenate oil & gas - Would almost certainly end US support of Ukraine, all but guaranteeing Russian victory Somehow... I'm honestly just not that torn Re: Immigration - the political reality is that even following Biden's latest EO, he is decidedly to the left of the American people. If he loses the election because of this issue, it'll be because voters think he is too weak, not too aggressive. I hate this as much as you do but if the choice is between losing every election because we refuse to engage in the democratic process in situations where we are outliers or moving to the right on this issue, I will support politicians who move to the right on this issue, simple as that. And make no mistake, if you think Biden's EO is draconian then what we'll see from a second Trump term will knock your socks off. They're already talking about what they plan to do and it will be horrific. They're not even trying to hide it.
Ben Harloe
2024-06-08 01:36:36 +0000 UTCWhat stands between Trump and the White House is not Joe Biden, but the American people. If Trump gets elected (and I think that's the likely outcome,) then it's the American people who must stop his rotten plans. Now, I just said a sweeping, vague thing, but the idea is about as concrete as 'a robust society based on solidarity,' which I guess we're supposed to assume isn't present. The message I get from many people is a Trump victory means that's it, we're done, good-bye to all that. But we haven't had an election yet, much less a month of Trump 2. I'm not exactly asking for optimism, but the pessimism seems to be as rooted in a morbid view of fellow citizens as the outlines of Project 2025.
David B Hearne
2024-06-07 20:56:33 +0000 UTC👋 It is a bit surprising to me that there are listeners of this podcast, of all podcasts, who seem taken aback by the existence of an anti-liberal (or “post-liberal”, whatever you wish to call it) left.
Axel Herrera
2024-06-07 19:10:42 +0000 UTCI'm torn, because I firmly believe that there is a real and tangible consequence to Trump's rhetoric which makes us all worse; but then Biden, despite it failing in congress, uses executive order powers to pass an even more draconian immigration policy, all while pursuing a horrific (and possibly two faced) policy in gaza, and I struggle to construct a real defense of either Biden or modern liberalism.
Leonardo Restrepo
2024-06-07 16:17:42 +0000 UTCThere are war crimes happening in Gaza. Biden is not a god king, he is not president of Israel, Israel is not a puppet state, and Netanyahu is not a remotely responsible counter party (Nor is Hamas, for that matter). Hence my comment- Asserting Biden is a war criminal (Or calling him Genocide Joe) without even attempting to justify that position is a choice you can make I guess. But it's not self evident and in any case it's not an objective statement, it's a political one. In response, I think it is fair to point out that the proposition of using this as a basis for anything approaching an equivalency between Biden and Trump, i.e. the man who is more singularly responsible than anyone else on the planet for the conditions that led to October 7th (And the subsequent Israeli violence), would be laughable if it weren't so dangerous. I'd also note that the fascist far right [war criminals] in Israel want nothing more than a second Trump term. I can relate to being tired though. Personally I'm pretty tired of individuals on the left repeatedly gambling our collective future and well being in order to virtue signal and preserve their own individual sense of moral purity, all the while performing Olympic tier mental gymnastics to rationalize it in spite of the plainly obvious and predictable effects it has and outcomes it makes more likely. The most mind numbingly stupid aspect of this behavior is that it reproduces the very same conditions that it claims to protest. You want shit choices (If we even have a choice anymore) in 2028? 2032? 2040? Then by all means, vote Trump 2024. He'll be more than happy to come in and continue his unmitigated destruction of norms and institutions. What the hell do you think is going to happen then? There is no plausible theory of change here, just nihilistic accelerationism. You don't get to sit it out and absolve yourself of sin, your actions have consequences. So here's my purity test. If you are anything other than a zealous advocate of the act of voting for Biden this year, which is your right, I will view you as morally culpable and implicated in any and all of the plainly, mind numbingly obvious consequences of that choice, if and when they come to pass. As is my right. Including the frighteningly likely prospect of total erasure of Palestine, a total Russian conquest of Ukraine and subsequently more wars of conquest in Europe, the end of peaceful transfers of power in the US, continuance of the backslide into global great power conflict that started in Trump's first term, further heightened tension with China hand in hand with far less competent strategy (They'll run circles around him), further tax cuts for billionaires, a total end to reproductive freedom in the US, and at least two more Supreme Court seats, to name literally just a quick handful of the countless horrifying outcomes that are obviously possible and likely. I don't care how much you preach to me about the lesser of two evils or how unfair you feel this is for you, personally. I care about OUR future and the countless people who will be needlessly ground up by the wheels of history over the course of a second Trump presidency and in its wake (If it ever ends). Palestinians and Ukrainians will be the first to go but it won't stop there. Trump and his movement has told us exactly what they will do, and they're gonna fucking do it. Ambivalence about the choice here is nothing less than a selfish abdication of your obligation to your fellow citizens, the world, and our future.
Ben Harloe
2024-06-07 01:56:34 +0000 UTCThere is a significant portion of the left that hates liberals and hates liberalism and hates the Democratic Party and thinks all of this worrying about Trump and democracy is a bunch of liberal and progressive bed wetting.
erik w bjorke
2024-06-06 23:46:04 +0000 UTCSomething y’all didn’t mention is that many democrats in these pivotal states are polling ahead of Biden. I agree with everything you said re: distrust and malaise, but it’s possible that the bigger story here is that people just really, really hate Biden and that the other fundamentals, while badly battered, are more intact than melodramatic punditry would have you believe
Blackford Oakes
2024-06-06 22:18:00 +0000 UTCYes, they tell us all as much all the damned time. Maybe they could get a new idea.
Adam Lewis
2024-06-06 21:11:08 +0000 UTCappreciate you guys doing an ep on current events. that’s the shit i’m here for. i could not care less about the history, theory & other academic bs you guys normally talk about (no offense, love u)
c
2024-06-06 20:48:53 +0000 UTCI'm frankly always a little disappointed by episodes like this that seem so close to some kind of reconciliation of left thinking with the actual political moment, but instead there's just reversion back to the mean of "alas, but the Democrats." Matt and Sam seem to have genuinely grasped the fascist danger of Trump and the GOP, but still seem unwilling to engage seriously with what that demands of the everyone on the left broadly. Matt proposes that someone campaigning on "descamification" would be popular! And Biden seems to agree, taking on airlines and Ticketmaster. Then in the next breath, it's not enough. That's penny ante, and what we really need is some grand vision to inspire. I look forward to being able to see "23 Mile", but in the meantime, I genuinely believe Matt and Sam would benefit from listening to the Bulwark's Focus Group podcast (if they don't already). Ordinary people are more likely to oppose Biden for being to "soft" on immigration than to "hard" on Gaza. That fact is bewildering, but nevertheless, it remains. The question is what should be done about it. These conversations never quite seem to get there.
Jacob Hollnagel
2024-06-06 16:17:22 +0000 UTCYou can vote for Biden, say he's better than Trump, that's fine, that's your choice. But if you can look at what's happening in Gaza with full US support and say that's not a war crime, I don't know what to tell you.
drizzly_november
2024-06-06 12:19:55 +0000 UTCComparing biden and trump in that way is insulting and naive.
Ben Harloe
2024-06-06 03:29:44 +0000 UTCI don't know, man, I think many on the left are tired of being browbeaten into voting for the "lesser of two evils" every fucking four years.
Axel Herrera
2024-06-06 02:29:24 +0000 UTCApparently after deliberating for years we still don't know our enemy. The ambivilance about this choice will not be looked on kindly by history in the event that Trump wins. Still this episode was worlds better than the 5-4 pod take of "vote your conscience".
Ben Harloe
2024-06-05 22:09:42 +0000 UTCThe left and putting a stick in its own spokes, name a more iconic duo. I for one still thank my lucky stars every day for those heroic, courageous Nader voters who truly redirected the course of history in the 2000 election. Things are better now!
Ben Harloe
2024-06-05 22:00:27 +0000 UTCTo clarify, what Axel means to say is "no". It is exactly what it sounds like, taken as a given without any need for justification.
Ben Harloe
2024-06-05 21:57:29 +0000 UTCWell calling Biden a war criminal is certainly a choice
Ben Harloe
2024-06-05 21:55:48 +0000 UTCI mean, we don’t call him Genocide Joe for nothing…
Axel Herrera
2024-06-05 21:20:27 +0000 UTCGreat wide-ranging talk that covers a lot of terrain and illustrates, I think, how much political dark matter of the moment is weighing on everybody’s minds. The cashout is ultimately (and I think you both say it at some point): “we just don’t know what’s going to happen.” Yet I doubt that “what” is this verdict, as the polling since seems largely unchanged, and most of the hoopla about it has been confined to media spaces. As you both discuss late in the episode, the positions of Trump and Biden in 2020 are now switched. However, I’m not sure that means that Trump has inherited the advantages Biden had as challenger. This might be an instance in which too much coverage has made it all but impossible to alter the Trump narratives (of which there are obviously several, depending on one’s politics). For the Trump-skeptical and Trump-averse, this conviction is likely to reinforce the story of the guy as a twice-impeached lifetime crook who tried to enrich himself with the highest elected office in the US and then tried to undo the results of the 2020 election. Republicans will try to change minds, but their sensational, inflammatory, and wildly paranoid messages are probably only going to further sicken people already grossed out by the current politics. The more important question is how much the Democrats underperform in this race. It is Biden’s to lose, no question. Levitz’s speculation about youth sentiment is interesting, too, but I wonder about the difficulty of mobilizing a bloc of thoroughly alienated, distrustful voters. I wonder also how many people under 30 say they’d support Trump, given a binary choice, out of sheer animus against Biden. All that said, I’ve wondered for a while whether we’d see some kind of reactionary movement in the 2020s among young voters over cultural issues, particularly among young white men.
HP
2024-06-05 21:17:05 +0000 UTCHashem's a very good friend of mine, we're fine
Chris Maisano
2024-06-05 20:45:25 +0000 UTCFrom your lips to hashem's ears, Chris. (But yes, of course, these are good points.) - Sam
Know Your Enemy
2024-06-05 20:15:03 +0000 UTCThose are all valid points. The polling I've seen suggests "Israel/Gaza" is not a hugely salient issue, relative to others, for American voters writ large (especially those who are drifting toward Trump). But the idea that doddering Biden has "lost control" of world affairs and lost moral authority is obviously germane. I also take your point about highly-educated and politically engaged (pro-Palestine) young people; I don't think, given their numbers and geographic distribution, they're likely to make a huge difference in the vote count (and the young people he's been losing in a noticeable way are not the most elite cohort); but those college grads *are* the people you'd expect to be highly-participatory in grassroots campaigning and (for those with a platform) public signaling. I don't see them becoming passionate enough about Joe to participate in that way, even if they "come home" in the voting booth. Fwiw, I also think we can expect to see major disruptions at the convention barring a (hard to envision) change of course on Gaza. And of course there's Arabs in the midwest to consider... Which is all to say, it's not a negligible issue for Biden in the least. - Sam
Know Your Enemy
2024-06-05 20:13:01 +0000 UTCAnyone else catch Vincenzo Pentangeli sitting in the rear of the courtroom?
Sebastian Lecourt
2024-06-05 20:02:39 +0000 UTCI hear you both. Being a leftist who votes for Democrats out of strategic and moral necessity means I often find myself asking, exasperatedly, "Why do I care about this shit more than you guys seem to???" (- Sam)
Know Your Enemy
2024-06-05 20:00:36 +0000 UTCStrap in. I think that floor might keep dropping out... - Sam
Know Your Enemy
2024-06-05 19:55:52 +0000 UTCVery well said. Tracks closely with my views. - Sam
Know Your Enemy
2024-06-05 19:54:48 +0000 UTC“If you distrust the political system as a first principle, you might not vote…” I think that’s actually the end of the sentence.
Evan Nordgren
2024-06-05 19:43:33 +0000 UTCGood point. Maybe motivation shouldn't matter as much, if the actions that are being motivated are above board. Was the prosecution conducted correctly, and was the truth of the matter upheld? If so, what the heck does it matter why they decided to embark upon it?
Nadine F Riopel
2024-06-05 19:32:00 +0000 UTCFor me it has less to do with him per se and more around the much more profound deeper question of what is the liberalism of 2024 he’s defending. As I see it the crisis of liberalism is less the rise of neo-fascism than the fact liberal democrats are trapped in the actual consequence of their actions and agendas, like the use of mass incarceration to handle economic problems or financialization. There’s an historical parallel to conservatism taking over the Republican Party in the Democratic Party. It’s not well-known anymore that the DLC (democratic leadership council) that emerged in response to Jimmy Carter’s defeat also took over the Democratic Party, officially ending whatever roots it had in New Deal liberalism. Neoliberalism is the meeting of the right and center in the same economic policies but out of different ideologies. They also choose to entirely to focus on presidential elections meaning republicans captured state legislatures, governorships, and judiciaries. Minus appeals to fascism what does this brand of liberalism stand for? If there is a parallel to interwar fascism, for me, it is what is the actual role of the middle class in industrial society and not its ideological conception of itself.
Steven Ngo
2024-06-05 19:17:46 +0000 UTCI would like to hear more about the critique of Timothy Snyder, who I get is problematic but who was a November 2016 life-raft.
Jane Cameron
2024-06-05 18:56:27 +0000 UTCAm I forgetting a previous discussion where Biden’s war criminal status was explained? Is it a particular crime?
Jay James
2024-06-05 16:14:42 +0000 UTCI think the verdict will matter. What's been lost a bit amid the (reasonable) fears people have based on polling data is that Trump has demonstrated potentially important weaknesses in a number of GOP primary elections so far. Not insignificant proportions of Republican primary voters keep voting for Nikki Haley even though she dropped out of the race quite some time ago, and I think the verdict could exacerbate Trump's lingering issues with that segment of the Republican electorate. That's potentially very important in what is likely to be a tight-margin election. On the Democratic side, Biden clearly has problems with important parts of his base too, but he has won a larger vote share as well as more total votes in his primaries than Trump did in some really important states, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It's possible that Trump, not Biden, could end up having big enough weaknesses in his base to cost him in the states that will decide the election.
Chris Maisano
2024-06-05 16:06:57 +0000 UTCThis this this. And as a result the main force behind much of Biden’s support is the lesser of two evils dynamic of 2016, where while not the incumbent, Clinton carried the football for many of Obama’s shortcomings as well, uh, having the last name Clinton. It might just go down to the fact that Biden was the challenger last time, like both Matt and Sam noted… although I hope not. Matt’s point about not losing the fragile and enshittified democracy we have really hit home for me.
Kristofer Nine
2024-06-05 14:17:57 +0000 UTCI don’t think his supporters have to believe in his innocence OR a conspiracy. They can just believe the decision to prosecute him was politically motivated, which it was. And to them law and order should only apply to POCs.
Deborah Agre
2024-06-05 05:58:22 +0000 UTCThat's certainly possible. I was pretty clear that my rational brain was my first "prediction," and the second one was the gut feeling I couldn't shake. I hope you're right and my gut is wrong!
Know Your Enemy
2024-06-05 04:27:36 +0000 UTCInteresting episode, but I think people often misjudge the Gaza issue. Most folks don’t care about Gaza or foreign policy- but the entire conflict has made Biden look old and indecisive OR corrupt and dishonest. The war accentuates the older criticisms of his age and competence- and it guts the very highly motivated, young, college educated base that over performed for Dems in the past two elections. Biden looks really bad, and folks who may have looked past it or held their nose are no longer willing to. This doesn’t refute the “declining trust” but I think it adds some much needed nuance. Most younger folks aren’t trending right so much as they have lost faith in the status quo that’s on offer. Insofar as Trump stands for a rejection of the existing system (and Biden stands for a status quo), Trump will have an edge. Why care if you don’t believe that the system can be changed? Why believe someone who has already lied to you, repeatedly, and failed to deliver?
Isaac Suárez
2024-06-05 02:46:12 +0000 UTCI was listening to “Going Postal” this morning and Matt says something that kept coming back to me as I was listening to this ep. [regarding trump’s polling] “...and I kind of think he isn’t [polling well], in part because democrats are running on a restoration message - but they’re restoring - want to restore a consensus that has already lost legitimacy. And I don’t know where that goes” (44:36 - 44:46) It feels like the legitimacy crisis has only worsened during the Biden Presidency. That this is the same election as 2020 but Biden loses the never trumpers outraged at the convictions
Jacob Willkomm
2024-06-05 02:36:30 +0000 UTCIt feels like we are all just bracing ourselves for what feels like an inevitable victory for Trump. When Matt said at the end that the person standing between us and the Trump restoration is a doddering war criminal I could really feel the floor falling out from underneath me.
Klaus Yoder
2024-06-05 01:52:49 +0000 UTCThat was insightful and depressing.
Daniel
2024-06-05 01:35:50 +0000 UTCAbout the Right Schmittians in response to the "neutrality" issue on DJT's convictions: I've just been reading on ol' Carl, and came across this piece in American Affairs by Blake Smith. Smith's description of Schmitt's "Tyranny of Values" is directly on point to your discussion here. https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/02/liberalism-for-losers-carl-schmitts-the-tyranny-of-values/
James Talley
2024-06-05 01:17:06 +0000 UTCI don't think this wins him any significant amount of voters. Most people upset by this were likely already going to vote for him. I think it will make it more difficult for him to gain essential "middle" voters and his rabid fanatics will likely act out and turn off the "normies".
Ryeman
2024-06-05 00:50:06 +0000 UTCAround 35:00 I'm like, "BECAUSE THEY ARE FASCISTS!!!"
Rick Perlstein
2024-06-05 00:47:50 +0000 UTCThe conviction is likely to lose him some moderates. But his base will support him even more strongly. 😩
Chad Bailey
2024-06-05 00:14:21 +0000 UTC
