$SPY TOP 20

The price action of the $QQQ and $SPY are just about identical right now and I have wrote a long commentary on how I see the market moving this week under the $QQQ chart just uploaded and have discussed the scenarios.

Similarly, a lower low here and the next Fib support level in play becomes the 0.38 Fib at $512 which is a -10% drop from here, which seems quite realistic next.

I believe Wave A completes on this level and I would expect a Wave B next.

As I have said a few times now, a retest of the 200 Day MA from below typically happens twice, except in 2020, so if we do get another retest and a rejection then we know that a correction is certainly confirmed.

All eyes will be on Weds when Trump announces his 'Liberation Day' plan on Tariffs, with many believing he will announce pharmaceutical tariffs next.

The market does not like uncertainty and a trade war which is constantly fought over the media is not something that will cool the market from volatility.

Economic Calendar for the week ahead:

Monday, March 31:

• Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for March: This index measures business conditions in the Chicago area, providing insights into regional economic activity. ​

Tuesday, April 1:

• S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI for March: A final reading on manufacturing sector performance

• ISM Manufacturing Index for March: An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector.​

• Construction Spending for February: Data on total spending in the construction sector.​

• Job Openings (JOLTS) for February: Provides insight into labor demand.​

• Auto Sales for March: Reports on the number of new cars sold, indicating consumer confidence and spending.

Wednesday, April 2:

• ADP Employment Report for March: An early estimate of private sector employment changes.​

• Factory Orders for February: Measures the dollar value of new orders for both durable and non-durable

• President Trump's Tariff Announcement: Dubbed "Liberation Day," President Trump is expected to unveil a comprehensive plan for reciprocal tariffs, potentially impacting various sectors including automotive and manufacturing. ​

Thursday, April 3:

• Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 29: Tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits.​

• Trade Balance for February: Reports on the difference between imports and exports.​

• S&P Final U.S. Services PMI for March: Final data on the services sector's performance.​

• ISM Services Index for March: Assesses the economic health of the services sector.​

Friday, April 4:

• Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for March: Key indicators of employment trends and labor market

• Average Hourly Wages for March: Provides data on wage growth, an important factor for consumer spending and inflation.​

Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak throughout the week, potentially offering insights into monetary policy and economic outlooks.